What a Big Three
I'll take Felix and Bedard OVER any other 1-2 in the league right now. I'm talking about this season, two guys, who do you want.
I'm not interested in comparing Greinke and Meche's performances, over 10 games, tit-for-tat. I'm interested in the fact that Gil Meche isn't as good as Felix Hernandez.
Edwin Jackson and Justin Verlander are tough. Just not as tough as Felix and Bedard. (Jackson's career ERA is 4.69. It's not time to anoint him a top-10 starter.)
Beckett and Lester -- Boston is left arguing that it's a push. Both are well behind Felix and Bedard in FIP. You want to argue it's a tie, that's fine. I'll take Felix and Bedard even over the mighty Sox' aces wired.
Sabathia and Burnett -- Sabathia's as good as our guys; Burnett is not. And Burnett has a 4.91 FIP at the moment.
James Shields you could ARGUE as being as good as Bedard. I'm not going to argue any other Rays pitcher, say Matt Garza, as canceling Felix. Shields and Garza are good, of course.
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Anyway. I'm not asking, what do your formulas tell you. I'm asking, who do you want.
We're playing roto, or sim, or whatever, for money, and it's 2009, and we're picking up 1-2's.... the first pair of aces that I take: Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard. One right, one left, both with 9K's a game, both with 3 BB's a game, both groundball pitchers, both PROVEN at their current levels of performance.
We're lucky to have 'em.
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Had you noticed that Jarrod Washburn is #8 in the league in fielding-independent pitching, just ahead of Erik Bedard? Let me read that sentence again.
Washboard's strikeouts are WAY up, to 6.4 ... while his walks are down, to a measly 2.3. He's giving up only 0.6 homers per nine (average being 1.1) -- this is the year that he's pitching well and Safeco is teaming up with him, to make homers tough.
His FB velocity is back to where it was in his prime. Similarly, his other pitches are biting a little bit more, and his deception is really what's gotten better. (Hitters are fishing for balls a lot more, and missing them.)
Jarrod Washburn is not one of the 10 best starters in the league. He's not one of the 20 best starters in the league. His hot-air balloon is going to come down -- from #8 starter in the league to about #25.
But this year, he is a GOOD lefty starter, and as such he is an OBVIOUS match for Safeco Field.
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Still, I love Sandy's suggestion of selling high. Find a playoff team that is reallllllllly hurting in the 4-5 slots, and rip off a couple of hot prospects. You can't accept the difference between Bedard and your best Rainier, but you can accept the difference betwen your best Rainier and what Washburn is likely to be in the future.
Once again, apologies to Chuck Armstrong, who was stuck on a skewer and roasted over Hades for nixing the Washburn trade. His decision turned out not only NOT to be stupid, but turned out looking great.
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The #4-5 slots are not canceling this goodness out. Why? Because under Capt Jack and Wok, the #4-5 slots are F-U-N-G-I-B-L-E.
The Melvin, the Hargrove, and the McLaren administrations would have insisted on leaving the entitled vets in the rotation to work their problems out. Silva, particularly, is owed a LOT of dough yet.
But Wakamatsu is doing what the A's do: when a pitcher doesn't pitch well, Wok just takes him out of the rotation. As a result, the #4-5 slots have been okay, and the M's ERA is #1 in the league.
It's not hard to get decent performance if (1) you will make changes and (2) you can judge talent.
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That's why Dr. D is optimistic about the 2009 M's getting better. An OPS+ of 87 is -- at least -- EASY to improve. :- ) The M's have the brass that are willing and able to improve it.
It isn't tough to go from 87 to 95. And when the M's do, they'll still have that great rotation.
Cheers,
Dr D