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One of the reasons I believe that assessment of defensive worth 'might' be off is that the way defensive and offensive stats for INDIVIDUALS are presented support a subtle obfuscation of scale.
For defensive players, the stats push the idea of -- first give X credit to the pitchers, then divide up the rest among the fielders. On top of this is the push for calculating worth "above replacement", (which again removes some portion of actual plays from consideration).
To summarize:
Defense makes X plays.
Remove "pitcher" plays.
Remove "typical" plays.
Analyze what is left over. (defensive impact 0.0000314 runs per game).
For hitters, the push is actually in the opposite direction. The concept of RC27 is based on a lineup of NINE of this player.
Player makes X plays.
Normalize him UP to a full 162 games.
Picture a whole team up him playing, (multiply production by 9).
Analyze results. (offensive impact is 7.35695639 runs per game).
conclusion: defense is trivial.
Okay - not every offensive stat is RC27. But, the basic truth is that in many of the offensive metrics there is "piling on". OPS includes BA twice is another example.
The SCALE of many of the offensive metrics is different, because offense begins by being 100% the responsibility of the hitter - and the only nominal adjustment to hitting stats is park effect, (which increases them in half the cases).
RC27 says the average AL player produces 5.1 runs per game, (which is strange, since the AL only scores 4.82 runs per game - but I digress).
But, a player is only one of 9. That means the 'typical' player actually only produces 1/9 of that ... meaning 0.5666 runs per game, (based on RC27). Or, 0.535 is using actual runs produced.
Ichiro is at 7.6 RC27 -- that's 2.5 runs above typical. Sounds big. Except, it's really 0.84 compared to 0.56. Ichiro adds 0.28 runs per game more than the typical player. That's good. That's significant. But, if you ask yourself, can a guy in LF actually save 0.28 runs per game with his glove? Well, the question gets really, really hard.
Too many math ways to look at stuff. But Pirata did a chart on hits (including HRs), and run scoring. It turned out that in the range of typical baseball production, (worst to best), the actual slope of hits to runs was 0.8. Every extra hit, (after you reached major league TEAM minimums), was effectively worth 0.8 runs.
Can Endy prevent one extra hit every 3 games compared to Wlad? I don't know. Two extra plays per week? Seems possible - even at a corner OF spot. But, really, really, really hard to tell.
Of course, if you use the most basic ratio for hits to run, the ratio is closer to 0.5. Is 0.5 more reasonable to use? Or is 0.8? Would using 0.8 just be using the slope that most readily supports a desired outcome (for my argument)?
I'm willing to concede I don't know the answer to that. But I do believe that the methodologies for defensive assessment seem to all be built on throwing out large chunks of data as irrelevant to the analysis. But hitting stats do not remove HRs from the hitter totals because the pitcher grooved a fastball -- or because the wind was blowing out in Wrigley -- or because the official scorer decided to score something a hit instead of an error.
The Rays from 2007 to 2008 prevented 300 extra hits. That's an average of 33 hits per position. Few of those prevented hits came from the pitcher or catcher slots.
But 300 fewer hits led to ... wait for it ... 273 fewer runs. The run saving in that particular case was 0.9. Two years. Same club. Same park. Each hit prevented saved 0.9 runs.
Endy Chavez only produces 4.1 RC27. That's 0.45 runs per game created, compared to the average 0.56. Compared to average guy, Endy costs the Ms offense a run every 9 games. But, if that 0.8 runs per hit IS accurate, then being even a little below average defensively can have major impacts on runs allowed.
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In the end, I agree that Endy is a great #4 OF, and would rather see an average defensive LF with more pop. At this point, I agree that it's time to move Wlad out, get a MI back from somebody overstocked with MIs, and cycle another OF spec thru the mill. In the meantime, Endy remains a superb #4 OF, who I believe would be a very beneficial veteran to hold onto for helping these kids adjust to the bigs.