First Three
Jack Zduriencik and their team are proven grandmasters of the amateur-draft chess game. I ain't. I ain't even *interested* in amateur players, much less knowledgeable about them.
So this is chat, not analysis, and it's offered in the spirit of a Class-C hack trying to kibitz the play of Yasser Seirawan in the skittles room. Hey, what's a blog for?
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=== QUICK PENNANT, JUST ADD WATER Dept. ===
When I was a kid, the Red Sox instantly became terrific when they suddenly added two Rookies of the Year* at once. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/1975.shtml
JIM RICE debut'ed in 1975, driving in 102 runs back in an era when 100 RBI meant that you were a cleanup hitter.
FRED LYNN also landed in 1975, and for the next four seasons, set the gold standard for just how good you can be hitting 15-20 home runs. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lynnfr01.shtml
This is my dream for Ackley: top 10 in AVG, top 10 in OBP, top 10 in doubles, great defensive OF, classy attitude, fluid and graceful playing the game, runs well ... I got your "all-around player" right here, pal. Not Willie Bloomquist: Fred Lynn.
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Personally, I haven't forgotten Jeff Clement just because he has to Bondo in his strike zone holes. If Clement were to come up this September, get comfortable, and then next season pound the long ball, he would be the Jim Rice to Ackley's Fred Lynn.
Not saying it's going to happen, of course. But we are talking about a #2 and a #3 overall here -- both lefty, both perfect for Safeco, both s-p-e-c-i-a-l talents. The Mariners have spent astronomically-high picks on two super-upside lefty hitters, and if they pan out, well ..... you should see what two guys like that can do.
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As demonstrated in our Ackley Timetable post, it's not in any way unreasonable to *hope* for Ackley to help the Mariners next season, like Zimmerman, Olerud, and other college guys did very quickly.
He'd have to murder the minors most foully, and then look like ARod next spring training -- not only hit great, but *look* great doing it. Then, he could break camp in the starting lineup.
Considering his agent is Boras, don't expect for him to get started quickly. And again, more *typical* would be for next season to be spent in the high minors. But these M's need offensive help very badly. If Ackley did sign, and rampaged this summer, I'd be thinking next year, not the one after.
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=== NICK FRANKLIN, SS ===
Is universally acknowledged to be a guy who:
1) Will not hit for power
2) Will not hit for average, either
3) Will play nice (not great) defense
4) Will show no weaknesses, being an "all around" ballplayer
5) Will work like a madman to get better
6) Has a great chance to be a fringe ML'er, or maybe a starting SS on a terrible team
See the first paragraph of this article: Capt Jack is the grandmaster here.
But I don't see the scenario in which you win, if you draft a HS Willie Bloomquist with a 1st-round pick. IF Franklin turns out to be everything he's supposed to be, THEN: I don't want him here.
In principle, it is a terrible, terrible pick. We'll see if the specifics of the M's evaluations trump the principle.
Nick Franklin was a FIRST-round pick! That pick was important.
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=== STEVE BARON, C ===
Is universally conceded to play pretty defense, with a questionable bat.
So, one of you Jack's-Always-Right lurkers out there explain to me: if Baron turns out to be everything he's supposed to be, that's Rob Johnson, right? Rob Johnson is a very professional defensive catcher. He's in the org because he's very talented behind the plate, and that talent has translated into game-in, game-out major league defense.
You're not accusing Baron of being so incredibly talented defensively, that he's going to be Jim Sundberg? He's simply accused of having the defensive talent to play quality defense in the bigs.
Again: supposing Baron hits double-sixes and turns out to be Dan Wilson, THEN: I don't want him here.
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You do need players whose value will always be at org level. I just don't know why you're spending the #27 and #33 on your minor-league teams.
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Once again: this is prima-facie baseball chat. I'm sure that the Brewers, er, Mariners, could tell you over lunch just exactly why they drafted Franklin and Baron. I'm just telling you, from a strategic-template standpoint, what my sense of proportion argues back.
.... the Brewers may have had the best drafts of any organization over the next several years. This historical excellence doesn't mean that we should conclude that every move they make is great. These two, I'll have to see to believe.
Positive spin? If Franklin and Baron eventually become, say, #5 org prospects, then they'll provide better trade fodder than most #27 and #33 picks do. Maybe that's the line along which Jack is thinking: it never hurts to have resources.
Comfort yourself with the fact that Capt Jack's team is better than we are. It's incumbent on a master to see things that an amateur does not.
Cheers,
Dr D