Let the Debate End
Debate still rages over Russell Branyan, whether he has proven that he is legit, and whether he "solves" Safeco Field. Let the debate end.
D-O-V doesn't know whether "solved" is the right characterization :- ) because there is no "solution" to the conditions that Safeco creates...
However, any player who BB's a lot -- that player is going to render field conditions IRRELEVANT (for those plate appearances).
Any left-handed hitter who (1) gets the ball real high and (2) is strong, is going to hit HR's in Safeco at a NON-PENALIZED rate. Branyan doesn't hit extra homers at Safeco. It's that he hits the same amount, and everybody else hits less. *That is the same thing as hitting more.*
Lefty TTO players -- those who make their living on BB's, K's, and HR's -- are going to render field conditions irrelevant at Safeco. (You know what I mean.)
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It seems to have escaped notice, mostly, that the 2004-08 Mariners have stockpiled the photo-negative images of lefty TTO hitters: Chuck & Co. have hated strikeouts, loved contact hitters, loved speed (hence smaller, weaker players), and as it happens have a bunch of righty hitters.
Beltre, Lopez, Betancourt, and all the rest of them are tailor-made to be crushed by Safeco. You couldn't draw up a worse set of hitters for the park, if you literally set out to do so. Franklin Gutierrez is absolutely included in this (and we notice that Capt Jack has slated Dustin Ackley for center field -- probably in 2011.) Kenji Johjima is included in this. Wlad Balentien is.
Because the Mariners evidently felt insecure watching the strikeouts of deep-count hitters like Roberto Petagine -- and many of their fans do, also -- they have been charmed by ballplayers who are talented in making contact.
...Yuniesky Betancourt is *exceptionally* talented at putting the bat on the ball. As a rookie, with hardly any minors experience at all, he ran one of the best contact rates in the major leagues. Yuniesky could cover a 30-30 bullet with a willow switch.
Of course, then they get this type of player to the majors and they want to teach him how to walk, as though they had drafted Nick Swisher. It isn't education. It's a question of which players you select at the beginning. Who in the world has ever *taught* a free-swinging international player to draw 80 walks at the age of 25?
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Capt Jack isn't stockpiling batters who make solid contact every time they swing. He has announced his pursuit of left-handed power. That's huge.
I predict that Jack Zduriencik *will* get Branyan re-signed. Branyan is his first big glory home run. Branyan's a guy that Zduriencik quietly "saw" in Milwaukee, and bet on, and he pushed into the pot with "this guy gets 550 AB's". Now that the guy is hitting like Jim Thome, why wouldn't Zduriencik want to sit down and enjoy his called shot for a couple of years. Hey, when the co-GM's called Raul Ibanez right, they kept him around for 18 years and savored every moment of it.
What I don't get, is why M's fans aren't THRILLED with Russell Branyan. I guess we're not yet as convinced as we could be. Relax, kids. It's going to be all right.
;- )
Branyan will thump, and he will continue to defeat Safeco Field. Unless he plans to stop drawing walks and swinging hard.
I simply love watching the man play baseball. I'm looking forward to watching him for this year and 2-3 more.
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