Okay, I went to Fangraphs, and sorted AL teams by HR/FB.
Only 3 teams pitching staffs have HR/FB above 11, (Yankees: 12.7; Jays 11.9; Os 11.1)
Of course, HR/FB is going to normally be impacted by park, (Yanks and Os no surprise here).
The Mariners TEAM HR/FB (including Olson's stats) is 8.0%, second only to KC at 7.8%.
Additionally, per Fangraphs, Olsen's HR/FB with the Orioles, in that bandbox was: 8.0 in 2007 and 9.5 in 2008.
The samples in all three seasons are small, (32-IP, 132-IP, 37-IP), but when I look at his pitch-type for his Major League career, I see a picture of a pitcher who is trying new stuff out. His FB% (64.2% this season), is the HIGHEST of his career. But, he ADDED the Curve this season, and has all but dropped the slider. His curve percentage in that 132-IP 2008 season was 0.2% -- and it's up to 16.2%.
Okay - the MPH indicates that they just reclassified his slider as a curve. That actually tells me that what he was throwing in 2008 was a curve that didn't. His 2008 slider went from -0.82 per 100 pitches and morphed into a +3.58 wins curve. That's a pitcher learning.
There's nothing to indicate Olson is going to stop learning at age 25. In point of fact, since his slurve is being reassessed -- that's likely an indication of WHY he appears to have suspect command, (while his BB/9 rate has gone: 7.79; 4.21; 3.11 in the past 3 seasons).
It's not that I think he's great today. He isn't. He's been more lucky than good thus far. I have no reservations in this regard. I'm just saying that his profile, (and the eyeball assessments of you and Doc), both suggest he hasn't gotten remotely close to what he is capable of becoming just yet.
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