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Sandy - Raleigh's picture

After a 2-hit (2-HR), 1-walk, 4-K win, the numerical data continues to mount that Olson is a pretty good pitcher with one SIGNIFICANT problem -- gophers.  ("I wantcha ta gayt rid of evry gofer on the course!")
But the gopher is actually the bad result, and doesn't idenfity the underlying problem.  So, lacking eyeball data, I began wondering if there was any numerical data that might help.  The sample sizes are tiny, so any thoughts are (at this point), conjecture.  But, here's what I found.  (These numbers don't include the 6/17 game)
Homers allowed = 7
Righties = 6
Lefties = 1
Lefties hit for better average and OBP, but righties are KILLING Olsen with power, (.500 slugging).
First pitch: 3-HRs -- (1571 OPS on first pitch -- 16-PAs; 7-Hit; 1-2B; 3-HR)
Other 4 HRs spread out over different counts.
3-HR with bases empty; 4-HR with a man on first;
0 outs -- 1 HR
1 out -- 2 HR
2 outs -- 4 HR
The PAs for 0/1/2 outs are roughly the same - but the OPS for 2-outs is 1153, while the OPS for 0 and 1 outs stand at .591 and .618.
It appears that Olson is prone to getting sloppy with 2-outs.  His Fangraphs page also shows his FB is where most of the damage is being done against him.
Tentative conclusion:  His curve and change are both major league capable.  His FB is weak, but his errors with it seem to be concentrated in situations with 2-out and nobody in scoring position. 
In checking the pitch-by-pitch log of the 6/17 game, the Kouzmanoff was a 0-out HR on an 0-2 pitch.  But, the Headley HR was with 2-out and a man on first, another 0-2 count after three straight fouls.  That makes 5 of 9 2-out HRs. 
Maybe he gets overconfident with 2-outs.  Maybe he just gets excited, since he's almost out of the inning.  Maybe his FB is losing something when he's pitching from the stretch.  But, the data still points me to the concept that while Olson has issues, (he cannot possibly survive with his current HR rate), that primarily, he's getting bitten badly by mistake pitches.  My sense is that with 2-outs, he may be getting overly aggressive.  (both of the HRs in SD came on 0-2 counts -- anyone ever heard the term waste pitch?). 
He would seem to need to take a page from Batista - and learn when it is appropriate to nibble.
 

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