Add new comment

Y'know, sometimes I think I'm blessed to be blind. (In that I don't actually get to see Seattle games except on the rarest of occasions). It means I have to rely 100% on stats - then infer other stuff based on discussion. To a degree, I think it prevents me from going all-in with most of my analyses.
What strikes me in this particular case is my two fav analysts, (Doc and Matt), are both on the same page with BOTH Olson and Jaku. That's the kind of tag team that makes me REALLY stop and question my position. But, it also makes me appreciate the magic that is conjured when watching athletic artistry. I had heard all about B.J. Upton -- but when I got to see him in person, playing for the Bulls -- only then could I really understand why everyone was gaga over his defensive "potential", (while I was watching error counts that looked more like Ruthian home run counts).
We all watch sports - not simply for the scored - the wins and losses -- but for the athletic artistry. The 475 foot clout doesn't score more runs than the 380 footer in the 3rd row -- but it certainly is more fun to watch, (unless you're the opposition, of course).
With Olson and Jaku, however, I find myself with an interesting quandary.
Jaku -- eyeball assessment by nearly everyone -- "Great control -- fearless -- positive, positive, positive, positive." Results? Pedestrian to dreadful, as his ML K-rate is literally half of what he showed at Tacoma. But, BECAUSE he looks good, the concensus is that his performance will improve.
Olson - eyeball assessment by nearly everyone -- "Command and control are both sloppy -- he's erratic -- he's making way too many mistakes -- negative, negative, negative, negative." Results? Better K and Walk rates than Jaku. SERIOUS gopher problem thus far. BECAUSE he looks/(smells?) rancid on the mound, the concensus is that he's going to stink forever.
My perspective? The guy with 14 obvious flaws is the one MOST likely to improve. He's the guy who has obvious things to fix that hold the possibility of achieving better results. The guy who looks GREAT on the mound, but continues to struggle with results -- what do you do to fix his problems?
In truth, I have no expectations for Olson. He may learn and grow, he may be that AAAA pitcher. But, I do know the stats show that Olson had the superior HR rate in the minors, (0.6 HR while Jaku was 0.7). The walk rates were identical, and Olson had a 2-K edge.
I completely accept that some inferior minor leaguers go on to have superior major league careers. I just know that it is extremely rare to get significant improvement out of a 30 year old, and common to get significant improvement out of 25-year-old.
For me? Without eyeball knowledge of either pitcher? I'm gonna place my money on the guy with things to fix - and who is 5 years younger - as the one more likely to improve. Gil Meche had a gopher problem, (until he left Safeco, oddly enough).
Statistically, Olson feels more like Pineiro than Meche. Then again, Pineiro continues to flounder around as a #5 starter, (but somehow has still managed to amass a 77-73 W/L record to go with his 4.52 career ERA.
I'm not saying that Olson is going to have Pineiro's career. I'm just saying that (allowing that HR/9 rates are erratic, especially in small samples), that Olson is ALREADY doing a fair impression of Pineiro -- and he's only 25. So, any improvement at all could be significant. Guys like Pineiro or Jason Marquis, (as two examples), are the GOLD STANDARD for #5 starters. They put up unimpressive numbers - but somehow, beyond all reason, they just keep teams in games and at the end of the year, they've somehow managed to put together 10-9 or 9-11 seasons of invisible pitching. Having suffered thru the 4-15 of Silva or the 7-13 of Weaver, or the 8-15 of Ryan Franklin, (couldn't resist) -- I'd think the value of a plodder like Olson might be a little more apparent.
Jaku? I think he could be a valuable bullpen arm for the very reasons he's being lauded as a starter. And, like Franklin, I think he's in over his head as a starter.
But, it'll be fun to watch EITHER guy succeed.