Garrett Olson, Quad-A Pitcher?
M's with an incredible streak of 8 straight games with >4 runs allowed. This was pointed out by Geoff Baker. What is this, Dodger Stadium 1965? :- )
The 1965 Dodgers had Koufax, Drysdale, Claude Osteen (?) and some other guy in a FOUR-man rotation. Bet you that it wasn't so often that THEY had 8-game runs of perfect pitching. :- ) Maybe somebody wants to go check it out?
Matty frets that the 8-game streak will go down in flames, since a non-ML-quality starter takes the mound tonight. I too suffer the trembling knees. After all, that's why teams don't get 10 great starts in a row: they have #4 and #5 slots in the rotation.
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Amigo wonders, hey, why down on Garrett Olson. He was great in the minors. He's a work in progress, that's all.
In this fangraphs article, also, an amigo is impressed with Olson's minors results and wonders if better park and OF support isn't the key to City Hall. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/garrett-olson-catches-a-break... To me, these analyses are logical but off track, "True But Not Accurate" as they say at Boeing.
My judgment is that Olson has AAAA stuff -- that his fastball and his command of it are too mushy for the big time, and that his curve hangs too often. That's my opinion; I could be wrong.
Personally think that he's always going to have gopheritis -- that when he misses and gets too much of the plate, he's going to get smashed. And he will miss often, my friends.
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Thus far in the bigs, he has a career HR rate of 1.3 -- completely unacceptable -- and this year, that HR rate is 2.0. All of this with a lousy 1.28 control ratio lifetime.
There are some guys who can outsmart AAA hitters, but who don't have what it takes in the big leagues. That's where the "Quad-A player" designation comes from.
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My own rejection of Olson, previously published, isn't sabermetric. It's based on tools scouting. I predict that his future is nil. FWIW, there are obviously a lot of baseball people who are thinking along the same lines, which is why the guy is bouncing around a lot, despite his shiny minors numbers and his golden-boy pedigree.
I give Olson credit for mixing his pitches: he's throwing 21% curve balls and 13% changeups. This mix is the reason he baffled the raw hitters in AAA. But it ain't working in the majors if one of those pitches isn't an actual weapon. Olson has no weapons, not even command; he simply throws three "meh" pitches up there with sloppy command, and hopes to trick batters.
There *is* such a thing as just being too smart and professional for AAA. A John Halama type, given two years of ML experience, might easily go down to AAA and simply overmatch them.
D-O-V officially stamps Garrett Olson with the "Quad-A" label. I accept full responsibility for the assessment. :- )
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But that's not to say that the M's don't have the right to give Olson a look as a #5 starter. Nothing wrong with that. Quad-A players spend time in the majors. You just don't want them in the way when you have a real major leaguer, say, Brandon Morrow, available.
Jason Vargas, that's another question. I haven't decided whether the dude is simply red-hot or whether he can actually execute these pitches going forward. If the latter, no Quad-A expiration sticker for him. :- )