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Taro's picture

Ya, I don't think the 7.6 SwS% is too much of a concern since his Called Strike% is also a career high at 20.7% and his O-Swing% is at a career high at 25.1%.
The one concern statistically though along with the SwS% is the Contact rates (which go hand in hand). Bedard's giving up a career high 82% contact. In the strikezone hitters are making contact at a career high rate, although the 89.1% is only a could percentage points off of the career 86.1%.
The big culprit has been contact OUTSIDE of the strikezone. The 64.2% (which is 11.3% higher than career averages). Since batter are swinging more often at this outside pitches this year it makes some sense that they'd make more contact, but this a very high %.
My guess at whats happening here is that Bedard is simply getting batters to swing and make contact at his slower curveball more often. Bedard has two different curveballs: one he throws for strikes and one that he throws a little harder to get swings-and-misses out of the zone. I think its likely that Bedard is throwing the former more than the latter this year which is leading to slightly more (bad) contact.
From '04-'06 Bedard averaged over 78mph on his curveball. In 2007 it went down to 77.5 and hes lived in that range since then.
Whats likely happening here is that Bedard is throwing his slower curveball more often for strikes. In 2007 this (among other adjustments) lead to a career year, and what we're likely seeing here is that the batters are guessing right more often and making contact with that pitch (but not doing much with it).
Another part of the reason may be because hes throwing his cutter and changeup less than any year in his career. Combined hes thrown those pitches 3.9% of the time versus 9.8% career. Hes turned into an extreme two-pitch pitcher (which isn't really a bad thing).
Bedard changed the way he pitches in 2007 which has continued into 2009. While Bedard was likely just on the best run of his career that year, batters have also probably adapted to his pitching style.
My prediction is that the SwS% rebounds to around 8.5-9% while the Called Strike% goes down a bit and Bedard Ks 8.5 a game as he always does. 2007 isn't going to happen again, and while there are health concerns hes still an excellent starter.

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