Erik Bedard's Swinging Strike Rate
Q. His swinging strike rate is down.
A. Are his strikeouts?
The modern trend to get more and more hair-fine about HOW a pitcher gets his strikes is very interesting. But if a guy is getting 9K's a game and guys are swinging less, then they're freezing and locking up more. So what?
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Q. You're honestly not worried that he's getting fewer swinging strikes?
A. Watch a ballgame. YOU tell ME what you think of his stuff. He's sicker than ever.
What I mean by that statement is this: Erik Bedard is throwing more vicious pitches than he ever has in his life. No. I'm NOT concerned that he's easier to see now, thanks, though.
I'm not saying that the fine analysts around here don't watch baseball. :- ) Some of them PLAYED it, a lot better than me. But never forget to get your sabermetrics, and your tools scouting, together. A glance at an Erik Bedard game proves that he hasn't lost an inch.
If anything, Bedard's curve is getting better. There are times I rewind a curve six times, just unable to believe my eyes...
Swinging strike rate is down? Okay, I guess that means he doesn't throw tough pitches any more. ;- ) Relax, homies.
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BTW, check fangraphs and the velocities on his FB and CV. Notice how eerily 2009 velocities parallel those of his great 2007 season. He has his fingers on the right laces this year, baby.
BEDARD IS NOT DIFFERENT. THE HITTERS ARE DIFFERENT (they're adjusting). Judging by Bedard's 2.47 ERA, I'd say their adjustments aren't working all that well.
If anything, Bedard's getting in their heads more as time goes on, and they're getting more and more passive. That would be my guess. The Mariners had this happen with Pedro and Mussina over the course of 5 or 6 years. By the time Pedro and Mussina were done with them, the M's hitters wouldn't have swung at an 85 fastball put on a tee. :- )
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Q. What's the argument against re-signing Bedard?
A. Barry Zito was a pitcher VERY similar to Erik Bedard.
Zito was way overused in his early 20's, and the wear and tear on his arm just took the bite off his pitches. The path to mediocrity for Bedard would be his losing the juice in his arm, losing the bite on his curve, and dropping to 86 on the gun.
Bedard didn't throw 230 innings a year from age 21 to 25, however.
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Q. This is neither here nor there, but why the walks lately?
A. Bedard has, for some weird reason, gotten hosed by the umps in about four out of the last six games. I don't know if it's the luck of the draw, or if they don't like his personality, or what. (Probably not the latter, since Bedard's career BB rate is very low.)
But as we discussed in our "GAMER" article a few months ago, Bedard's reaction to adversity is always the same. Shake off the annoyance, get back on the mound, re-focus, and execute the best pitch he possibly can the next time.
The man's a bulldog. He cannot be rattled. I'd like to give him a Game Seven, wouldn't you?
Dr D