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It is very misguided IMO to pay a free agent player based on a unlikely best case scenario. Even by paying them based on what they are likely to produce and/or what they HAVE produced in recent seasons is a huge risk in free agency since values are inflated. HOPING for Bedard's '07 is one thing. PAYING market value for it? Thats just bad strategy IMO.
It IS true that teams put the most emphasis on the most recent season though (whether I think that wise or not). IF Bedard has a tremendous second half that'll do a lot for his value. His 2007 season isn't going to help him at this point anymore than his '08 is going to hurt him.