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Great article.  This is the high quality H20 that sets you apart from so many of the others in the blog-o-sphere.  It's not just that you're willing to say, "Maybe I was wrong" -- but that given the evidence, you're savvy enough to NOT simply jump full force into a new position, (being blind from a new point of view is still blind).  The "maybe" is critical, because maybe has to come from a place of humility and openess to previously unexplored possibilities.  Wonderful read.
That said -- something I would add is that your findings here are intimately related to one of my favorite talking points -- that players are NOT exactly the same every day they take the field -- that consistency is what sets the greats apart from the disappointments.  But, your findings here expand on that point in a way I hadn't really seriously contemplated.  Even when you're the same guy today as yesterday, the RESULTS can be different. 
It's actually a major step forward to understand that players have good and bad days (of performance).  It's another to accept that players have good and bad days of RESULTS, (regardless of performance).  This season, Javier Vazquez for the Braves could EASILY be leading every Cy Young discussion ... except almost nobody knows he's pitching well, because he's had as bad (or worse) run support than Washburn.  The Braves have created new ways to prevent him from getting wins all season -- collapsing bullpen - anemic offense - little league defense.  It's a new disaster every outing.  Best pitcher in baseball with zero chance at the Cy Young?  I dare anyone to go look at Vazquez' stats on the year and not go slack-jawed.
Of course, this doesn't apply to just pitchers.  In April, Seattle had FANTASTIC offensive *results*, while having miserable offensive production.  They hit much better in April, but scored less.  They are hitting even better in June, but are barely equalling their April run totals.  As you note -- like '60s sportswriters, it is very easy to lose track of everything when you get too focused on the results.  It can blind you to what's coming up the road, (good or bad).
With Felix, I think you are missing one simple reality.  Yes, he's been pitching great all season.  He's been the same - and had bad results in a few games.  This means, it is LIKELY to happen again.  That nature of the game is such that you run into a tight strike zone, a check swing single, a HBP -- and you're one "he sat on the fastball" away from a 4-0 deficit.  This is why, regardless of offensive force of a team, the best pitchers still only win just over 50% of their starts.  34 starts -- 17 wins.  That's an All-Star performance in either league.  You get that 1 or 2 extra wins over half of the starts and you're looking at a CY.  Even if you have the best starter in baseball - he doesn't win every time out.  I know.  I got to watch the glory years of Maddux -- where he performed miracles on the mound and kept winning 19.
No matter what.  If Felix is fanning 9 per 9, that still means another 18 outs have to be generated from the defense.  Some days, they fall in, no matter how good your pitcher might be.  But yeah - if Felix keeps dealing - if Bedard returns healthy - if the offense continues posting the .770 team OPS they've put up in June - they can stay in it.