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Sandy - Raleigh's picture

I was curious about how much the Ms park might be skewing defensive results - especially CF.  Thanks to Fangraphs, it is possible to see the UZR/150 for a TEAM - (goes back to 2002).  I'm going to list the league leading team in UZR/150 (for CF) - and then list Seattle's UZR/150 in CF also, (including the Ms rank).
2002 - Angels (16.9) -- Ms (7.0) 3rd
2003 - Angels (17.5) - Ms (12.1) 2nd
2004 - Rangers (14.9) - Ms (7.2) 5th
2005 - Royals (18.3) - Ms (1.7) 8th
2006 - Indians (12.6) - Ms (-2.2) 10th
2007 - BoSox (14.7) - Ms (5.8) 5th
2008 - Orioles (14.1) - Ms (2.9) 5th
2009 - Mariners (20.6) - Ms (20.6) 1st
Here's the thing.  EVEN given a park edge for the Ms, the current UZR/150 number is better than any league leading UZR/150 number since 2002.  Moreover, it is MASSIVELY superior to any number for any Mariner team during this period, (which includes a couple of Cameron seasons). 
As an analyst, I understand that results and ability don't march 1 to 1 in all cases.  But, the numbers being generated in 2009 support numerically the concept that F-Gut is producing better results than Erstad in his prime.  But, equally important to understand is that (as they say with stock prices), past performance is no guarantee of future production.  After a fantastic 2008 season, the Orioles CF numbers in 2009?  (-13.8). 
Give F-gut another season producing double-digit UZR numbers and THEN one can begin concluding that there is genuine (possibly long-term) value here.  At the moment, however, the data pool is too small to be drawing long-term conclusions from.  It is certainly nice to know that he is not "simply" doing well.  The fact that the current metrics are placing him WELL ahead of the field certainly is suggestive that there is more than park effect going on here.  After all, in 2006, the park was not enough to prevent a negative URZ/150 result.

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