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Sandy - Raleigh's picture

Great article, Doc.  Captures my thinking almost perfectly. 
That said - I found it curious that you only mentioned K/BB when discussing "how would I know".  The first T in TTO stands for Three after all.  In previous seasons, the big slosh with Joh was BABIP - which skewed badly against Joh.  But, BABIP is viewed as a luck-driven stat, so it's not unreasonable to lay out some extra line.  But, in 2009, the HR rate for Joh has been nightmarish - (41 HRs by Joh in 31 games -- 29-HRs with Johnson in 42 games). 
The other thing (refering to the Johnson thread), is that you said RJ's K/BB isn't drastically better.  I'm looking at the 2009 stats on 7/8.  What do they show?
Johnson: K/BB = 2.38 ... Johjima K/BB = 1.59 ... Burke K/BB = 1.79 (only 12 games).
If a .81 edge in K/BB isn't big, what is?  The LEAGUE difference for best to worst K/BB is 1.58 for Cleveland up to 2.39 for the Twins.  The difference between Joh and Johnson is LITERALLY the difference between the best and worst teams in the AL in terms of K/BB.  The aggregate pitching numbers for Seattle are 1.94, (just a smidge under the league average of 1.99).  The PITCHING, taken as a whole, is average.  With Johnson, they become the best in the AL, with Joh, they become the worst.  How could that NOT be viewed as significant.  For me, the adjective I would use is massive.  (Of course, it's pretty clear that the blame is divisible almost 50/50.)  It's not that Johnson is lightyears ahead of EVERY other catcher -- but evidence suggests he is currently an "elite" game-caller, while Joh would have to be viewed as the polar opposite - "replacement level" game-caller. 
 

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