Great article, Doc. Captures my thinking almost perfectly.
That said - I found it curious that you only mentioned K/BB when discussing "how would I know". The first T in TTO stands for Three after all. In previous seasons, the big slosh with Joh was BABIP - which skewed badly against Joh. But, BABIP is viewed as a luck-driven stat, so it's not unreasonable to lay out some extra line. But, in 2009, the HR rate for Joh has been nightmarish - (41 HRs by Joh in 31 games -- 29-HRs with Johnson in 42 games).
The other thing (refering to the Johnson thread), is that you said RJ's K/BB isn't drastically better. I'm looking at the 2009 stats on 7/8. What do they show?
Johnson: K/BB = 2.38 ... Johjima K/BB = 1.59 ... Burke K/BB = 1.79 (only 12 games).
If a .81 edge in K/BB isn't big, what is? The LEAGUE difference for best to worst K/BB is 1.58 for Cleveland up to 2.39 for the Twins. The difference between Joh and Johnson is LITERALLY the difference between the best and worst teams in the AL in terms of K/BB. The aggregate pitching numbers for Seattle are 1.94, (just a smidge under the league average of 1.99). The PITCHING, taken as a whole, is average. With Johnson, they become the best in the AL, with Joh, they become the worst. How could that NOT be viewed as significant. For me, the adjective I would use is massive. (Of course, it's pretty clear that the blame is divisible almost 50/50.) It's not that Johnson is lightyears ahead of EVERY other catcher -- but evidence suggests he is currently an "elite" game-caller, while Joh would have to be viewed as the polar opposite - "replacement level" game-caller.
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