Add new comment

Another great read, Doc.
One quibble.  2b/ss/cf do not get 5/5/3 "chances" per game.  That's how many outs per game the positions generate, (in very generic terms).  Unfortunately, I haven't found a definitive source for "precisely" how many outs are attributed to each position, (assists vs. putouts complicates matters), but my own VERY rough breakdown looks like this:  (Outs per 27)
Pitchers: 7 (includes fielding)
Catcher: 0.5 (CS + non K POs)
First Base: 1.0 (assists, plus some for non-assistend POs)
Second Base: 5.0 (assists - some POs)
Shortstop: 4.5 (assists - some POs -- 2Bs actually get more TCs than SS)
Thirdbase: 2.5 (assists - plus some POs)
Leftfield: 2.0 (putouts -- assist totals are almost negligible)
Centerfield: 2.5
Rightfield: 2.0
==================
It's not perfect, but that's a fair estimate of the OUT distribution.  While SS is a harder position, second actually gets more total chances, (800 for 2B, 700 for SS in round numbers).  These are based on TEAM totals.
But, only 30% of BIPs turn into outs.  So, ignoring the pitcher contribution, (7 outs), about 20 outs per game are generated by the defense.  Double plays, HRs and sacrifices mess things up a bit, but with teams generating 9.2 hits per game, you're talking about (in round numbers), 28 or 29 chances (depending on how you count it), for every 20 defense-outs.  So, the CHANCES per game for the MIs is actually around 7.  I also suspect that a significant portion, (perhaps even the MAJORITY) of the value for OFs, isn't in outs generated, but in base-suppression -- turning doubles into singles the primary.   (Does UZR - or any of the other defensive metrics - adjust for non-HR XBH variance?)