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I'm a fan of F-Gut.  I was cautiously optimistic when he was acquired.  I'm thinking he's a legit .800 "threat".  I like your Joe Carter projection.
All that said - the discussion of Safeco impact on him made me wonder ... what are his splits this year, anyway?  The results are mind-boggling.  (thru 7/8/9)
Home: .327/.412/.451/.864 -- BABIP .420!!!
Away: .267/.305/.411/.716 -- BABIP .298
What number above looks REALLY out of place?  At this point, he's got 5 extra road games, 158-PAs on the road, 135 PAs at home.  Hits are nearly identical.  But, his home/road split for power stuff is strange:  3-1-3 at home for 2b/3b/HR -- 6-0-5 on the road.  That's a .124 ISO at home and a .149 on the road.  I'm actually beginning to think the reality of Safeco is that it's not that it prevents hits, so much as it converts HRs into doubles and 2Bs into singles.
So, power suffers at Safeco, (hardly news).  Except, wait a second.  His actual slugging is 40 points higher at home!  This is where I think the analysis gets harder.  If you stop at slugging, you miss that 60 point edge in BA in Safeco.  But, a skew nearly as big is his walk rate.  BB/SO numbers:  Home: 16/30 ... Away: 8/27.  Same K rate - but LITERALLY double the walk rate?!?  85 points of patience at home, only 38 on the road!!! 
Conclusions?  None.  At home, the line reads like a guy stalking his pitch ... except when he gets it, he's hitting more singles than anything else.  On the road, he looks like an impatient hacker, but his power numbers soar.  At best, I see a kid whose game is STILL developing, so the small sample and continuing development as a hitter is simply making any rational analysis effectively impossible.  He's a moving target.  But, is this just because he's streaky, or is it because he's putting things together that are sticking?  Only time can answer that question.