Add new comment

1
Sandy - Raleigh's picture

Flashback - 2007 - F-Gut posts: .266/.318/.472/.790 - 13-HR in 301-PAs; (301-PA in 100-G)
FGut has a line of: .297/.360/.450/.810 - 10 HRs in 30 in 305-PAs; (305-PA in 79-G)
Here's the BIG difference:  2007 = 21/77 (BB/K)  2009 = 26/59 BB/K
Franklin has made PRECISELY the step you want to see in a young hitter.  He's gained walks, and cut down on his Ks.  But NEITHER shift is dramatic, just noticeable.  The makes them MORE likely to stick.  This is what I view as "nuanced" improvement, rather than complete retooling.  And he's JUST getting back to the power he showed in 2007.  Note that his current slugging is 34 points LOWER than in '07 - and his ISO is only 144, when it was 206 at age 24.
I am not normally one to jump blindly at a hot streak.  But, with Guttierez, the evidence suggests this is NOT a hot streak.  The power he's shown in the past month is the power is what he showed for 1/2 season in 2007.  It's MAINTAINABLE!  Of course, the one arena for nervousness is average.  He's a .267 career hitter with a .297 avg today.  His BABIP shows some real danger signs.  BUT - the reduction in Ks coupled with the increase in HR rate actually suggests that a .300 average may not be a reach.  There are PLENTY of guys that fan 120, walk 60, and still hit for average.  Want some examples?
AROD, Miguel Cabrera, Josh Hamilton
However, to carry a high average with 120 Ks, what you MUST do is hit HRs.  I once calculated that there is a rough 6 to 1 ratio between HR value and K value.  Every HR offsets roughly 6 strikeouts.  So, this is where it gets interesting, (in a drool inducing way).  Torri Hunter, Raul Ibanez -- these are guys that fan 120ish and hit 20-HR.  They hit about .280.  This is the spot where many see Gut's *upside* landing.  Me?  I think that's his soft, chewy center. 
But, if his improved eye is for real.  (and we know his strength is).  Then, he's MORE than just a 20-HR bat.  He's a 30+ HR bat.  And if he starts hitting 30, (which is a very real possibility, even in Safeco, given his strength), then his UPSIDE really does become Cabrerra. 
Of course, he's still a kid.  There's still a lot that could go wrong.  And, if I were betting, I'd play it safe and bet on the Torii Hunter template as being the more likely final picture.  The key understanding here is that the F-Gut Seattle has seen in the first half isn't a "new" Guttierrez.  He's just gotten back to the original Gutierrez SO FAR.  The question to be answered still is this ... does he have the capacity now to sustain the streaks and shorten the slumps?  If so, then yes, Virginia, the Mariners may have landed Miguel Cabrerra at a bargain basement price.

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd><p><br>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

shout_filter

  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.