One thing to keep in mind with any transplant is where he's coming from. Today, the analysts are quick to point to park effects for possible problems. This is good. But, I think while capturing some of the dangers, the examination is over-simplified. EVERY organization has its own hot buttons. They TEACH "their" way of doing things. Seattle, under Bavasi, preached putting the ball in play, and avoiding strikeouts. We saw the results.
The Pirates have been mired in the muck for a long time because the organization has some very curious ideas about what works - and unlike the Ms, they appear either unwilling or unable to break these patterns. Pittsburgh, for a long time has LOATHED the walk, LOATHED the strikeout, and in many, many ways, they are in fact, the NL clone of the Bavasi Ms. They typically rank last in OBP, but are often middle of the pack or better in hitter Ks. They also have a park that is friendly to lefty power hitters, and generally hurtful to righties.
The good news is that park effects are about the same, so Safeco shouldn't hurt any Pirate import. The bad news is that Pirate players were taught the same things that Bavasi players were taught. The question then is ... are the players only CAPABLE of doing what they've done, or has the organization suppressed their production? The club doesn't like hitters that walk, and they seem intent on dumping any hitter that DOES.
What is really odd is how often the Pirates generate ROOKIES that come up and hit record numbers of doubles, then never repeat the performance. ARAM had 40-2B and 34-HRs at age 23, but collapsed as a sophomore and was traded. Jason Bay tore it up for two years, before his walks (and XBHs) suddenly vanished.
Wilson was fanning 70-74 times a season thru 2004, (when he had his career year with 41-doubles). Then his Ks dropped to 58, (and his power vanished). If the big year had been 2003, then I'd be thinking juice. But, I'm thinking the club, when it sees GOOD production, immediately says -- "Fantastic -- but if you just cut down on your Ks and BBs, then you could be REALLY good."
Sanchez had 53 and 42 doubles. He doesn't hit HRs, but when he hits the ball, he hits it hard.
You want the short and sour on the Pirates? They are VERY good at developing talent. But, the longer they hold talent, the worse the talent performs. They have been throwing the Bavasi hex on their OWN players for a decade - that Bavasi "mostly" only threw on his imports.
No - I'm not PREDICTING suprisingly good results if any Pirates arrive in Seattle. I'm just saying that Seattle knows what it feels like to turn great talent into dogmeat -- and the Pirates are the NL masters of this process. If the club is going to have a repeat of the Bret Boone experience, it will almost certainly be by selecting someone whose been mis-guided by an organization for their entire careers, thereby suppressing their actual value.
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