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Your projections are exactly the way I pictured them...
The 2009 M's are undermanned, IMHO, and there's been a certain amount of luck in their playing as well as they have so far.
It's beautiful to see their Little Engine That Could attitude, but their offense just is not a serious contender's offense. Their team OPS+ stands at 91 and that's hiked by a thumb on the scale for Safeco.
Give Capt Jack credit. He has revamped a 102-loss team into a feisty .500 team in just a coupla months. But until this team can look a quality pitcher in the eye, and beat him, it's not ready for prime time.