Add new comment

Its kinda crazy how polar oppposite USSM and DOV are. Dave's worst analysis comes when he overfocuses on the negatives and loses sight of the overwhelming positives (Lincecum, Bedard/Washburn, Lester/Papelbon, etc.) and Doc I think your worst reccomendations have come when overfocusing on the postives and losing sight of risk/negatives (Zito, Schmidt, Millwood, pretty much expensive FA pitching).
My guess is that Dave hated the Bedard deal and hated Washburn's contract so hes subconciously biased against them. Heck, I can't really blame him since I'm no Washburn fan. I will say this. You trade Bedard AND Washburn for JJ Hardy and your season is OVER. Just Forget it.
I think one of the reasons Dave is missing this is because of an overfocus on WAR. Bedard and Washburn have both been worth roughly 4 WAR combined so far and Dave is probably figuring for another 2 WAR from Hardy for a half a season with 2 WAR combined from Vargas/Olson/RRS..so no loss right?
It just doesn't work like that. Bedard and Washburn are LH starters in Safeco with the best OF defense in the league. Neutralizing LHBs and pitching to contact while limiting Hr/FB% in THIS park with THIS defense is going to create an even bigger advantage for Bedard/Washburn than a neutral RH pitcher would receive. Washburn's CAREER HR/FB% is 8.6%. This year its 8.0%. He kills the LHBs that normally do well in Safeco and keeps the RHBs in the park DESPITE high FB rates. Bedard also KILLS LHBs and limits HRs. His career HR/FB% is 8.8%, his CAREER HR/9 is 0.82. Not only are Bedard and Washburn TOR starters this year, but they are GREAT fits for your park and defense. WAR also assumes Bedard misses more time, and if were going to compete this year, we NEED a healthy Bedard down the stretch.
In reality a healthy Bedard (which we're going to need if we intend on competing)+Washburn are likely worth closer to 9-12 Wins over a full season to the Ms. Yes Washburn's FIP is 3.88 and thats boosted by Safeco, BUT stylistically neutralizing LHBs (with the added sinker) and throwing strikes to RHBS (while keeping them in the park) is going to serve him VERY well in Safeco behind this defense. If he keeps this up hes going to run a sub 3 ERA all year long. YES, the D helps him and the park helps him as well, but again, he has the toolset to uniquely take advantage of this. Its kinda like having a Manny Ramirez in Fenway..
The same is true of Bedard but to a larger extent. The guy is capable of running a sub 3 ERA for the rest of the year if he can continue pitching at a '06/'07 level. If he stays healthy he has a real good chance of making a Felix-like impact in the second half of the season.
Guys like Jason Vargas and Olson are lefties, but they have ability issues as well as gopher issues. A guy like Morrow has command issues and gopher issues as well. The gap between Bedard and Washburn over these guys is HUGE. You cannot downplay it.
Neither Bedard or Washburn are replacable for the Ms this year if they're looking to compete.