What you say is true. But, this just kind of makes the whole stars/scrubs vs. civics argument silly, because it would seem everyone is actually on the same page. I understand that some of the Worp/$ guys go overboard with their value rants -- but I believe even they appreciate that you've gotta pay SOMEBODY big bucks.
From my point of view, the Bavasi era problem was not "caused" by Wash and Batista and Vidro salaries. It was CAUSED because they started the process by sinking major dollars into Sexson and Beltre. For awhile Sexson and Beltre were producing well enough -- but AFTER paying for them, there simply wasn't enough money left over to do better than the 8-10 million contracts on mid-level "scrub" FAs.
What I've been saying all along is if you spend the BIG money up front, then you've boxed yourself into a corner, where you HAVE to get stellar production out of your farm. Your "cheap" players *MUST* produce 80+ OPS figures, else your stars don't matter. Acquiring Vlad or Teixeira or whomever is the juicy FA of the day *BEFORE* you have a lineup filled with cheap guys producing 80-100 OPS+ figures doesn't fail because of the Worp/$ issues. It fails because you can't get "reliable" talent on the FA market for cheap.
Yes, there are bargains like Branyan available. But, they are available because they are NOT "reliable". It is those very guys that waver between 90-100 OPS+ that can either make or break your season -- because a down year and you're doomed, an up year and you're looking great. But, picking .725 hitting guys really does cost significant money on the open market.
Just because 5 (of 30) managers snag a guy for a cool million who posts a .790 OPS doesn't mean that this is a good plan. The other 25 managers were all hoping for the same from their dumpster diving. But if 4 or 5 of 6 DON'T deliver, it's bad planning. This year's club is producing offense almost identical to 2008. But, this year, the club has a great 1B, Ichiro is having a monster season, and the CF import has an OPS over .800. The club had ONE guy hit .800 in 2008. So, why aren't they any better? Because in 2008, the club only had 3 (of 9) positions hitting under an 80 OPS+ for the season: 1B (68), RF (79), and DH (58).
Currently, the club has 4 positions below my "scrub" line: CA (64), 3B (66), SS (66), LF (66). The decline in those spots has negated the gains at the above 3 positions. What I think isn't completely appreciated is that the 4 positions that are posting "scrub" lines have all suffered from injuries. Joh went down, Beltre was playing hurt and is gone, Endy got hurt, (and left with exactly an 80 OPS+). YuBet's decline is the only one that cannot be reasonably blamed on health issues. But, guys posting 80-100 OPS+ numbers aren't reliable.
If the club extends Branyan, then it's got 4 decent bats for 2010, (1B, 2B, CF, RF). With the injury issue, the odds of getting a cheap extension for Beltre have probably gone up. If healthy, he gives the club 5 bats that can be counted on, IMO. Catcher, Short, LF and DH become the questions for 2010, (assuming those two extensions). Without that assumption, the club has 6 spots to fill. You simply CANNOT fill six spots with out LOTS of money and get "reliable" talent. And, when fishing for the undervalued, you also are NOT going to roll Yahtzee on your selections.
If you sink big bucks into a Teixeira, and then scrounge for the other 3 slots - IMO, you've wasted your money, because you cannot afford to fail twice, (and that includes having ANY of your re-signed talent swoon). Remember, two guys under the 80 OPS+ figure, and you're pretty much out of the WS picture. This is why I say - you try to fill your roster with 9 guys who ALL can manage to beat 80 OPS+ and *THEN* you find the best place to swap out for a star. But, it ain't an easy thing to do, when talent changes every year. Trying to hit that window of opportunity is incredibly difficult, and is made easiest by STARTING with a bunch of 25 year olds that you can control for several years on the cheap. (The Florida model).
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