The Angels aren't a 94 ERA+ team. The have a 94 ERA+ becaus ethey were forced to give about 200 innings to players who had no business in the major leagues. Take a look at this list:
Anthony Ortega (12.2)
Rafael Rodriguez (20.2)
Kevin Jepsen (17.0)
Shane Loux (38.1)
Matt Palmer (75.2)
Rich Thompson (16.2)
Daniel Davidson (1.2)
Sean O'Sullivan (23.2)
And I won't even speak of the pitchers who are now on the DL who were highly ineffective before their injuries got diagnosed (Shields and Santana being the main culprits)
As currently constructed, the Angels' pitching staff isn't quite as bad as they look numerically. This is reflected in their much better PythagenMatt record (much better than their PythagenPat record I mean).
Actually it makes quite a statement about the strength of the Angels' organization that they can run 8 arms out there that have no business in the majors and still be on pace for 90+ wins. That having been said, the Mariners STILL shouldn't give up on this position. We just need one little hot streak like the Angels have had recently and everyone will be wondering why they were so down on the team. We haven't actually seen Seattle firing on all cyllanders at any point this year except possibly their 7-2 start but there was a lot of luck in there as the team was not hitting well.
The Mariners' 92 OPS+ (still gradually rising thanks to MUCH improved OBP in their last 28 games of .339) may not seem like much, but the team is playing with three black holes in the offense...possibly 4...and some of that black-holishness is bad luck, plain and simple.
Beltre isn't a 50 OPS+ bat. When he returns to the line-up, will you feel like we've added a 50 OPS+ bat? Ronny Cedeno is certaily not a GOOD hitter, but he's not a .180 hitter. He slumped badly in May and early June when he started getting playing time, but in his last 20 games is hitting .250/.309/.403. Which is a heck of a lot closer to what I would have been projecting for Cedeno prior ot the season. Rob Johnson is young in terms of baseball experience and still learning to hit. He's hitting much better recently as well, especially in terms of showing some occasional power. The team is going to have to find Johjima some at bats as well, because the man is EN FUEGO when he does play...raising his OPS+ to the 80s by hitting 114 in his last 12 starts.
The point is...this team is capable of hitting better than 92. If we can keep the bottom of the order hitting above the mendoza line with occasional pop and working the count as well as they have, all things considered, the team will hit 98, 100, 105 when the bats are working.
Fact is, in the last 28 games, they've hit 107 (!), with a .280/.339/.439 slash line...that's pretty darned solid. But the pitching hsad been in and out during that stretch...missing the ace Bedard (he came back in there but made three starts, none of which lasted 6 innings, and was only moderately effective), getting poor performances from Vargas, Olson and Morrow, and having some guys regress in the bullpen. If we can now get the pitching back into a groove with that offensive line, we could easily run a 15-6 stretch like the Angels jsut did.
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