Doc,
First, a quibble:
You say that we can know Bedard is healthy because the doctors who have actually seen him have given him a clean bill of health. But isn't that begging the question? You are exactly right that we sabremetric types are flying blind as far as "real data." But if the Yocums of the world were high on him wouldn't the O's or the M's have extended him by now? Couldn't the facts we know actually support the suspicion that there is something wrong with his arm?
All that said, I'm firmly in the "pay the man" camp. Sure it is high risk, but it is also high reward. Chris Carpenter is the model. After Carpenter had missed a season and a half, he rattled off three healthy seasons. But since the Cardinals extended Carpenter in 2006, he has made a grand total of 18 starts in 2.6 seasons. For this the Cardinals have paid him more than 26 million. Yet, the Cardinals are fine with that because he allows them another legitimate shot at a ring this October. As they should be.
Oh, and lets trade for Halladay, too.
-Enri
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