Canadian Bacon
The Mariners have finally made a major move, and it's with the intention of getting a sneak peak at the future. Wlad Balentien has been designated for assignment and certainly will be traded in order to make room for the Rainiers' best player, Michael Saunders.
The Skinny: Saunders is a 6'4", 205 pound outfielder who bats left-handed. He's 22 years old and in his fifth year of professional ball (fourth full season) after being drafted in the 11th round in 2005. He was rated the M's #2 prospect before the season by Baseball America.
The Fat: Defensively, Saunders has the speed and arm strength to handle center right now but is considered to be a corner guy long-term. Even still he should be a plus defender in left.
At the plate, he scuffled early in his career, struggling mightily in his first full season of professional ball at 19. However, he has made rapid progress since then and has seen his production dramatically improve despite being promoted aggressively. He is now a complete player, hitting for average, drawing walks and delivering serious power which resulted in a .310/.378/.544 batting line this year in Tacoma. He should be a consistent 30+ homer guy who has an OBP of at least .370. This would make him a legit impact player and a star in the AL.
Now, many would argue that this is a way too optimistic projection, that his overall performance in the minors doesn't justify it. I say that this is mistaken. Despite having a dreadful season at 19 and despite often being placed at least one league higher than he would be if he were in another organization, Saunders' career line is a rock solid .279/.364/.452. If he merely sustained that he'd be well above average offensively. Of course such an overview ignores his precise trajectory which is much more favorable than that suggests. He has clearly improved every year beyond what would be expected of typical player and is now radically better than he was 4 years ago. Furthermore, not only is this season his best year for production, but he has cut down on his strikeouts which was his one big knock.
It has also been argued that scouts aren't sold on him. This is probably an overstatement. Baseball America has consistently described him as a 5-tool talent and talked up his power while Jason Churchill has similiarly rated him highly. But it is true you won't find scouts who are drooling over him and predicting stardom as I have. However, this is a reflection on the scouts, not Saunders. It is important to understand that if a player is not hyped up when he enters professional baseball, then scouts are very slow to change their projections. BA in particular spends an enormous amount of time and resources covering the draft which means where a guy gets drafted lingers in their writers minds for years afterward. This produces a very telling bias. Allow me to provide one example.
Jason Bay was drafted in the 22nd, which means he was basically considered org filler on draft day. However, he consistently hit in the minors and in a late season call up mashed .287/.421/.529 in the big leagues. Since he still qualified as a rookie, he was included in BA's Prospect Handbook the following year. Now, you would think that after already punishing major league pitching he'd be a lock to be his orgs #1 prospect, especially in and underwhelming Pittsburgh farm system. Wrong. BA actually rated him THIRD among Pirates prospects, and the two guys ahead of him were 23- and 21-year old pitchers who both had lousy campaigns in Double-A the prior season. They clearly were inferior players to Bay but they were former first round picks and the writer could not get past that even after years of dissapointing performances while Bay was going to be undersold as a guy without much upside (they talk of him as maybe turning into Jeff Conine!). The same goes for Saunders. You won't find a scout who will admit he can hit 30 homers until after he does so. He just doesn't have the right pedigree to get any hype.
In short, he isn't a solid prospect, he isn't a good prospect, he is a GREAT prospect. He is also a perfect fit for this team. He has the range to cover the big left field and the lefty power and patience to tame Safeco. He is going to be a key piece for years to come.