You mention sample size, Doc. The sample is 29 major league innings. I wouldn't make a call on any pitcher in the history of the game based on only 29 innings - whether it was Greg Maddux or Greg Olsen.
Oh, I could pull out the "how many times has he allowed 3 runs" metric that you've used to judge Bedard this year, (answer = once in 5 starts). But that ignores that unlike Bedard, French has REALLY been a 5 inning guy. You want a pitcher who succeeded with a sub-90s FB, and I would throw Greg Maddux at you. Of course, his glory years were before we were tracking things like runs above average by pitch type.
Me? I've got no clue as to what French might become. My first response was to WONDER "what changed that caused the spike in his 2009 AAA numbers"? My second was to consider that IN A PENNANT RACE, the Tigers, who have produced Bonderman, Roberton, Verlander and Porcello in the recent past, elected to bring FRENCH up this season when needed. This is also a club that snagged Edwin Jackson from the scrap heap and turned him around.
My opinion of the Tiger organization is that TODAY, they are one of the better clubs at judging and developing pitching talent. (and one of the worst at keeping said talent healthy).
I feel the same way about French that I felt about Jaku when he was getting gushing reviews back in April --- there there isn't NEARLY enough data to draw any firm conclusions on. Yes, his minor league composite line is Example A in the "Useless 101 Handbook". But, his 2009 AAA numbers and his callup - and his relative success in 4 of 5 starts -- these ALL go counter to that minor league composite.
Me? I value the ability to PITCH more than "stuff". But, I understand to survive in the majors, you MUST have "minimum" stuff. There's a major league minimum level of ability that is required for entry. But, beyond that minimum ability - I firmly believe that the ability to PITCH is more important than the stuff. Guys like Kerry Wood routinely fail in the majors despite ungodly stuff. (Ian Snell is yet another example).
Unit had stuff out the ears. He didn't learn to "pitch" until he was 29. Nolan Ryan survived on "stuff" until he was almost 40. His stuff was good enough where he didn't NEED to learn to pitch. But, the last 6-8 years of his career likely only existed because when it started slipping away, he finally started to understand why VASTLY inferior pitchers routinely outpitched him.
I'm not going to wave away French's changes so swiftly, however, because I believe the Tiger organization knows waaaay more than I do. And I suspect that Jack does, also. That said, even if you are 100% correct about Olson -- that he fails to meet the admitance criteria for stuff (today), that it's impossible for him to learn something to meet that standard tomorrow.
With Olson, at least, he's piled up enough MLB innings where the data is showing no signs of moving, so I can at least accept the concept that there is a reasonable data pool to stare into.
Honestly, however, I have this sneaky suspicion that Jack's plan is:
Felix
Bedard
Snell
RRS
Vargas
And the real short-term job for French (if Bedard returns soon), is going to be to help out in a very weak bullpen, where he can more readily leverage that one plus-plus pitch that everyone seems to agree that he's got.
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