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from simply saying that empirical evidence can provide information abou what you ought to believe, and about what methods you should use for further refining you beliefs, but it always falls short of ensuring the truth? I can't see any person seriously claiming that it would be impossible for them to be wrong about an empirical belief, and hence I'm led to think that your assertion that there are many people in the SABR world who are guilty of the logical fallacy you are ascribing to them is uncharitable on your part.
Guess all you like, but on the basis of the evidence we have, there is still no good reason to believe in the "career year" explanation.