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"If the numbers show that the herd of cows, averaged, don't prefer clover to alfalfa, and that just as many cows prefer alfalfa ... we conclude that it cannot be the case that Bessie over there prefers clover?"
No...but we conclude it's irrational to assume that's what's going on when Bessie eats clover for a couple of days.
And it's just as irrational to assume that Washburn is having a "contract year" just because his performance spike is happening at the end of a contract. Especially in the face of real data which is painting a different picture.