The 2008 batting line for catchers in the AL was: .252/.297/.377/.674 -- that is, by definition, the average AL catcher in 2008. (Of course, starters tend to hit better than reserves, and the benchies will pull down the aggregate more at catcher than at other spots - but it's a fair place to at least start the discussion of what you expect OFFENSIVELY from your average catcher.
Johnson, as a 25-year-old rookie currently has a .218/.295/.335/.630 line. Yeah, given his plusses with staff-handling, and his 33% CS rate, (league avg in 2008 was 27%) ... I would say grading him at C- is perfectly reasonable, if you expect his current hitting line for the whole season is all he'll ever do.
But, what is a catcher supposed to hit to be considered more than C? Johnson hit over .800 during July. Okay, it's just one hot streak. Or is it? His development to this point is all over the place. From A- to A his production went UP as he rose: .624; .749; .824; Small samples, of course, but that's a really, really, fast track. He skipped AA entirely, going straight from A+ to AAA, (at age 22). He STRUGGLED in year 1 at AAA, (.231/.261/.318/.579). But, in his second year, (and in 422 ABs), he posted a .268/.331/.372/.703 line at age 23.
In 2008, he spent year 2.5 at Tacoma, and posted a .305/.363/.441/.804 line.
The evidence shows a guy who LEARNS as he goes. He hasn't failed to adjust at any point, given just a bit of time. He's also been all over the place with his patience - 50, 40, 70, 30, 60, and a current best 75 points of isolated OBP ... in the MAJORS!?!?
The juicy center of his final two years in AAA would be something like: .280/.350/.400. But, remember that until 2009, he was in an organization that PREACHED contact over selectivity. Now, he's in an organization that is preaching intelligent design in regards to hitting approach.
Maybe the fact his 1/11; 4/12; 3/12 BB/K splits morphed into 10/10 during July is simply random. I don't REALLY think he's a .387 OBP guy. But, how the heck can I tell what is reasonable for a kid who barely has 200 PAs in the majors? Maybe the 75 IsoBB rate is high. Maybe as the league adjusts to him, he'll fade. But, a .270/.345/.385 line seems completely reasonable as a landing point. That would be a .730 OPS ... a miniscule 56 points above the avg. 2008 catcher.
Basically, the club has had to spend most of 2009 UN-doing the damage done by the previous regime. For some players, (Wlad), they never got anywhere. With Johnson, the evidence, (sparse as it may be), suggests that he's adapting. He appears to ME to be one of those guys whose major league lines is going to outstrip his minor league aggregate, (which is: .270/.323/.389/.712). I don't expect he'll ever fit the mold of 20-HR catcher. But, if he can get his OBP over .320, he's definitely a net plus OFFENSIVELY, (considering the average catcher doesn't break .300 OBP).
Moore may have more inate power. But, there is little else I see that actually makes Moore a significantly better prospect. I'm not thrilled he LOST 120 points of OPS in year 2 in AA. Knowing what Safeco does to righty modest-power guys ... I'm thinking Johnson may actually be more valuable OFFENSIVELY in the long term "in Seattle". I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Moore becoming Johnson's backup in 2011.
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