I'm gonna have to get more specific about my comps. People are freaking out that the comparison I draw is to "a LH soft-tosser who needs his breaking pitch to be on that day or he's getting hammered, but can throw 160-180 innings in the #5 slot for you and can be moved to the pen if things don't go well" and apparently want me to find the exact pitch style and composition comparison instead. This seems to keep happening.
I want to know what production I can expect out of a slot. I don't care if the guy is the exact same height, chews the same tobacco brand and has 1 extra MPH on his FB or swings a 1 oz heavier bat. But that's just me. Other people apparently want body clones and exact stuff comparisons. Lesson learned. :) I'll stop giving comps.
I do agree that French has a better chance of being a lefty stopper since lefty changeup artists *normally* are not lefty killers (depending on the style of change they throw and which way it breaks as it falls out of the zone). French's breaking pitch gives him a better chance of stopping LH bats and he could do long-relief fine if starting isn't in his future.
But I'm still fine with running him out there at the back of the rotation for basically nothing and seeing what he can do. I like him better than Olson for sure and he JUST found the handle on his slider, so I expect some growth there as he figures out that he doesn't have to nibble around the zone with every pitch now, which was causing him a lot of issues earlier in his career. If he winds up in the pen, though, I have other guys who can step into that slot.
The prize of the deal is still Mauricio Robles. Yes, I know he needs control (even though he has a 2.5:1 K:BB). Yes, he's short. He's also KILLING people out there and already has far better command this year. If we'd gotten Chris Tillman back for 3 months of Washburn people would be freaking out about our awesome deal. Tillman's trip through high-A looks a lot like Mauricio's (tho Tillman was a few months younger), Robles was running a huge FIP split earlier (his guys suck at helping him out), he's a lefty with low-90s stuff, a curveball that's making low-minors guys look stupid (wanna see THAT deployed in AA) and who is getting a working changeup. Did I mention he's practically unhittable even with his wildness and sucky fielders? 20 year old Erik Bedard just got added to our system (crap, I just made another comp...) so I'm not really worried about How John Halama/Luke French is doing as my #5. Tiny Bedard/Freddy Garcia (ie, the lynchpin of my trade for my deadline pitcher with the expiring contract) is the guy we got back. If his velo jump into the low 90s is sustainable, look out.
I wasn't kidding when I said I thought he was the 2nd best starting pitcher in the Detroit system. If he was Tillman/Garcia-sized we'd never have gotten him. He's under-valued because he's tiny. So was Roy Oswalt. And Tim Lincecum. Maybe he blows his arm out. That can happen to any pitcher. Maybe he only turns into a pen arm. But I like that kid a lot.
If we're gonna get back any bats in a trade, Morrow and Robles are the ones who are gonna have to make that happen. Otherwise, we're just gonna have to see if either can throw a few less BBs and stick in the rotation. I like the chances of one of those guys working out. So long as they stay healthy. *knock on wood*
And in the meantime, French is making sure we're not having Olson/Silva as our only back-end options to keep the big club above waterline.
"Better now, better later" is Z's motto. Snell + French is better than Wash + Olson for 09, both are with us for years if we want them, and Robles is the best prospective starter in our system if Morrow isn't.
Sounds like we're following the motto fine to me.
~G
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