Slow, Slower and Slowest
Q. Why do you say that 83 mph vs 86 mph doesn't mean much? Sounds like a cop-out.
A. 'Cop-out' has the connotation of 'intending to avoid responsibility.' :- )
True, D-O-V does discourage the theme that runs "Joe has a fastball 86-87, but that's better than Jamie or John, who averaged 83 mph."
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Q. 96 vs 92 mph makes a difference, though, right.
A. Sure. 400 lbs on the bench vs 350 makes a difference, too. But 20 lbs vs 17 lbs doesn't. As you get tougher and tougher, the resources needed to meet the challenge go up exponentially.
But it doesn't work the other way. There comes a point when it's just child's play to lift the bar, or to do whatever, and taking off more weight doesn't affect anything materially.
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Think of boxing. Mo has super fast hands; Sugar has amazingly fast hands. You can deal with both of those guys, but every added tick of speed makes the tangle of strategy that much tougher.
To a professional fighter, I have hands so slow that he can duck them at will (I'm an Average Joe who doesn't box); Matty, let's just say ;- ) has hands even slower than mine. Neither one of us is ever going to throw their right cross past a pro fighter's gloves.
There is no point talking about my punch taking 1.2 seconds vs Matty's 1.4, if 0.7 is the minimum needed to make a pro fighter respect a punch.
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Once a fastball takes forever to get to the plate -- 87 mph and down -- the question is whether you at least make the hitter move his CG to get the barrel of the bat on the ball.
If he does have to lean out or pull back, or dip the back knee or straighten up, to get the barrel of the bat to the ball, then sure, the hitter will have a tough time driving the pitch. ... He cannot load up on 9 sectors of the zone at once.
Moyer had as good a command as anybody who's ever pitched. That 85 mph was right on the black, either black, and an 85 FB on the black is a plus pitch.
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There comes a point where we non-ballplayers are sitting behind our monitors, speculating about what it's like to play the game, sort of like archaeologists trying to re-create some aspect of primitive life we have discovered. :- )
Ask any ballplayer and he'll tell you that 78, 81, 84 mph, it's all just BP.
Read up from any ML hitter who has ever broached the subject, such as Ted Williams in My Turn At Bat. Ted would joke about some guy with a minus FB and Teddy was looking for a slider and here came a fastball waist high. Ted would raise ane eybrow, "Oh, here's a nice fastball," and crank it. "I had that much time," he used to write.
That point of "useless velocity" is about 86-87 mph or so. 65 mph, 70 mph, 75 mph, it's not significant. Once the batter can sit curve, and still have all day to adjust fastball, then location is the pitcher's ONLY defense.
High school kids can hit 86 fastballs, and Hank Blalock is not a high school caliber player.
It's not my speculation. Ask any hitter.
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It sez here that Luke French had better paint with that 86-87 fastball, and paint every bloomin' time.
We'll see. :- )
Cheers,
Dr D