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Why?
The question of the Safeco effect made me wonder ... what has the impact of Safeco been on Lopez to this point? Answer: Career 31-HRs in Safeco, 29-HRs on the road. No effect. Right?
Not so fast. THIS YEAR, the split is 4-home; 11-road;
If we accept that Lopez has a genuine tweak which is turning doubles into HRs, the impact thus far is almost entirely limited to road games. We're talking REAL small sample, of course. But, it certainly supports the contention that Lopez power isn't sufficient to manage the 17-ish home homers he'd need to bust 40.
But a 28-32 HR guy? Yeah, I think he's ALREADY got that much power. He'll likely have to hit the weight room or the "wait" room, (start stalking gophers), to go much further.