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Lopez's shot of hitting 40 HRs are essentially zero unless he gets advice from Brett Boone on PEDs. He just doesn't have that kind of raw power. Its a numbers issue, but its also a scouting issue. When Lopez 'gets all of it', his HRs don't travel like Sorianos or Dunn's or Fielder's.
I'm not a fan of comparing timelines, considering development curves, and especially since PEDs can have drastic impacts on individual timelines. I'm not saying thats the case with Soriano, but I don't like imperfect comps as a way of predicting a player's future. All guys are individuals and its very hard to find two players who are exactly similar.
Soriano isn't anything remotely comparable to Lopez, Tejada is closer but also a different player type. Lopez doesn't have the raw power in his swing of either.