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Sandy...good analysis of the minor league data...as always top notch 30,000 foot view stuff...but I think you're missing the crucial part of the analysis that suggests why Lopez has more power than Taro believes.
WHY did Soriano take a quantum leap forward in power?  Well looking at his major league batting lines, his XBH% didn't change all that much...the thing that appears to have changed most dramatically for Soriano was simply that doubles turned into homers.  After his age 26 season, he also slid further and further into being an extreme flyball hitter, which helped keep his ISOP up even as his LD% and XBH% started to slide a bit (more flyballs = more XBH that turn into HRs with his natural bat speed).
I don't think Lopez is going to be a perennial 40 HR superstar, but I think Taro is flat missing the main reason Lopez hasn't hit for power in the major leagues (the groundball rate) and ignoring the obvious power skills he showed in the minors.  He doesn't have average power...he has significantly better than average power and the HR distances he's laser focused on will improve as his topspin starts to get replaced by backspin.  No one with his blistering quick bat can possibly fail to be at least league average in HR/Fly.