Taro brings up a valid point of discussion ... does Lopez REALLY have Soriano-esque power? Taro says no. And if true, he's correct that Lopez will top out as a 25-HR guy -- and 2009 could well just be a career year.
HOWEVER, I went back to look at the MINOR LEAGUE numbers. I think the minors can often be illuminating for foundation abilities (like power). Against easier competition, "sometimes", you get a better view of "inate" power. Of course, if you can't catch up to an MLB fastball that inate power can vanish quickly, (see one Wlad B.).
That said - Soriano didn't spend much time in the minors. 360 ABs in AA, and another 530 in AAA. In AA, at age 23, Soriano hit 15-HR and 20-2B in 361 ABs. He posted a .501 slugging, (.196 ISO). His first 82 ABs in AAA were dreadful, (.566 OPS), so just looking at the 459 ABs he had at age 24: 12-HR; 32-2B; .464 slugging (.174 ISO).
At age 25, with the Yankees he posted a .432 slugging and .164 ISO as a rookie. His power didn't actually BLOSSOM until age 26, (2nd MLB season), .547 with a .247 ISO.
Lopez, at age 18, had a .464 slugging (.140 ISO). 19, AA, .403 (.145). But, at age 20, in AAA, he showed a .505 (.210). He split time in 2005 (age 21), and showed a .505 (.186) in AAA.
Then, he moved to the majors permanently at age 21. Since then, he's posted an aggregate .407 slugging (.135 ISO). THIS season, he's got a .459 (.181) at the moment. The 2009 major league power production is perfectly in line with his AAA power production from age 20 and 21.
So, Taro does have a legit point. That Soriano's *CURRENT* power is beyond anything Lopez has ever shown. Soriano has been posting 230+ ISOs since he turned 26. BUT, Soriano *NEVER* showed the 230 ISO prior to turning 26. Conclusion? Soriano is not a bad comp for Soriano at all in terms of lack of patience and "inate" power, (thru age 25). However, Lopez doesn't fan NEARLY as much as Soriano, (roughly half as often). Just because there is a reasonable comp thru 25 does NOT guarantee Lopez will take the same quantum power leap that Soriano did. But, it IS important to understand that Soriano, at age 26, DID take a quantum leap in power.
When I mentioned Soriano, I did note this is the "upside" projection for Lopez. I see nothing in Soriano's historical line to dismiss that as a valid upside. Is it the most likely result? Probably not. But, Lopez contact skill is closer to Vlad's than Soriano's, (but his eye isn't nearly as good). To become a 40-HR guy, it is likely that Lopez will HAVE to fan more than 100 times a season. Me? I'd set the odds of a 25-HR guy on Lopez as high as 95%. I'd set the odds on him being a 30-HR guy at 60/40. I'd probably set the odds of him becoming a 40-HR guy at about 25%. His eye isn't good. His park isn't favorable. But, I believe his production was likely suppressed by the instruction under the Bavasi regime, where Ks were the greatest evil a hitter could do. Unless you're Pujols or Bonds, you *HAVE* to strikeout to get HRs. He keeps his Ks under 70, the 40-HR plateau is going to be hard to reach. But, I believe if his Ks go UP, and concentration on hitting the ball hard (in any direction) sinks in, it's not impossible.
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