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Sandy - Raleigh's picture

You're correct that all players are a combo of streak and slump.  Branyan was a can-do-no-wrong, thousand OPS guy that fans couldn't get enough of ... until he slumped to a 650 OPS for a month.
This is where ORDER changes perception.  Lopez starts with .650 OPS production, when he hits .950 for a month, it isn't noticed, because most people ONLY track the on-going stat sheet. 
But, first impressions are typically hard to shake.  Going .650 to .950 creates a perception that the .650 is "real" and the .950 is just a streak.  Go .950 to .650 and people get the impression .950 is real and .650 is just a slump.  The reality, of course, is NEITHER perception is correct.  The "reality" for every hitter is the aggregate combination of both streaks and slumps.  No hitter -- not Ronny Cedeno -- not Albert Pujols -- hits at a fixed rate.
Pointing out that Johnson has been hitting over .800 for a month doesn't mean I believe he's an .800 hitter.  I don't.  But pretending the streak isn't as much a part of what Johnson is as a hitter is just as silly as pretending the first months didn't exist.  It's not an either or.  The question is not "is Johnson hitting .800 today?" - he is -- not "was Johnson hitting under .600 earlier?" -- he was.  The question is, what is the likely combination of streak and slump long term?
For a guy with 2000 PAs in the majors, playing at various stops, with a slew of different coaches, most of the time he is what he is.  Like Langerhans.  He's a decent #4 OF, who will waffle between All-Star level and dogmeat level.
For a guy with only a couple of hundred PAs in the majors, it's just dumb to think those 200 PAs *COMPLETELY* define everything he is and will ever be as a hitter.  Did Jose Lopez first 200 PAs define his ultimate journey?  How about Wlad?  How about Clement?  Or Adam Jones?
If 200 MLB PAs was all that was needed to judge every hitter, then NO hitter would ever get YEARS of major league instruction to help him figure it out.  Anyone projecting Johnson to become a 20-HR guy would reasonbly be laughed off the planet.  But, projecting Johnson to be a .270/.350/.390 hitter (.720 OPS), with .750 upside isn't completely insane.  Nor is projecting him to get "figured out" by pitchers and plunge to a .630 level. 
As Matt noted, "some" streaks are easy to identify as "luck-based".  A huge spike in BABIP with no change in Ks, no change in walks, no change in ISO ... that's a lucky streak.  A period where a 25-year-old rookie shows major improvement in a bunch of skills with NO major spike in BABIP ... that doesn't scream "luck".  The suggests STRONGLY that the hitter is growing.
Yes, it could be just a period of being in the zone.  But, the month of August should be very instructional.  Why?  Because historically, streaks AND slumps typically max out at about 6 weeks.  You go back and look at any players best periods - and by and large you can find 6 week windows of performance (high or low) well away from their standard production.  Of course, a 25-year-old rookie doesn't HAVE any standard production.  Johnson's current streak began almost precisely on July 1st.  His August and September numbers will be VERY important in attempting to determine where his ultimate likely production level will land.

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