The Doug Fister Template
Q. What's the template? Does he come from the Chris Jakubauskas Family of Top-100 Ever's?
A. 0+ walks are the dominating factor here. Anybody you compare the 2009 Fister to, has to walk ... um ... nobody.
Whether that's because of command, or because of giving in, his comps are the guys who go 0-1, 1-1, 1-2, ball in play or strike three.
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Based on the report that he has a solid fastball, a fanatical commitment to strike one, a fair K rate in the PCL, a pedestrian G/F percentage, and not much offspeed ...
IN VERY LOOSE TERMS, that's what James called the Catfish Hunter template. Low walks, high HR's, very consistent performances month-to-month and year-to-year.
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Carlos Silva was not in this template because his K's were too low and his GB's too high. Notice that in the minors, Silva only fanned 5 guys a game.
Bob Tewksbury, the cultural icon for zero walks, only fanned 4+ in the minors.
Catfish Hunter didn't run no blinkin' 7:1 control ratios in the minor leagues.
Fergie Jenkins, when young, was a K guy who didn't have particularly low BB totals. He's only in the template because of low BB's and higher HR's.
Radke, in the minors, did run a K/BB/HR profile somewhat similar to Doug Fister's. He didn't drop off to 87-88 till later, about the year 2000 or something like that.
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You start to wonder, what 92 mph righties walked 1.0 guys in the minors while striking a lot of guys out. I'm guessing that when you find them, you're going to find some cool names in there.
For now, the young Brad Radke is a template friend -- he came up with a 90 fastball, outstanding command, and an emerging changeup. (Radke was always a BABVA roto mainstay, and is a relative of one of my best friends, so we're partial here.)
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Q. How does he get his strikeouts?
A. Could be a million ways. How should we know? :- ) First guess, FB's just outside the zone, and called strikes, and up the ladder. But, whatever.
HUGE question, whether he has a good change-speed game.
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Q. First key to the game?
A. Watch for:
His location on 2-0 and 3-1 counts. Figure out whether he's a command virtuoso or just a guy who says, "here it is, hit it."
Jamie Burke says it's the former. Jamie Burke is a bloomin' authority on the subject, kids.
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Q. Other keys to the game?
A. And whether he can get guys out swinging out in front on offspeed. If he did that TOO, then wow.
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(1) If he had mediocre offspeed and no plus-plus command -- which is our default assumption, since he's in the minors -- that would be the (current) Jaku situation.
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(2) If he has mediocre offspeed but pinpoint control, that's the young Catfish Hunter , Bill Gullickson, Dennis Martinez, Oil Can Boyd, Doug (not Kyle!) Drabek, Esteban Loiaza, Kevin Tapani *template.*
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(3) If he has good offspeed and pinpoint control, that's the Brad Radke (Jered Weaver, Javier Vazquez) template. This would result in a bunch of minor league numbers that put stars in your eyes, but then again, Fister's 2009 numbers do that.
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I have an inkling for the Kevin Tapani comp -- just as a 99c value menu order.
Eyes slideways,
Dr D