Fister's Strikeouts
Q. What's he throw to lefties?
A. The Sox have good lefties, Podsednik and Thome with Getz in the lineup too, and Fister threw them pretty much the same thing as he did RH's. Located FB's, and overhand slurves. Fister doesn't throw anything that drops into LH wheelhouses.
I have no idea why his splits vs LH should be a problemo, except that his FB runs away from them, which is undesirable. His slurve is a good pitch against them.
Reports of Fister's demise vs LH were probably exaggerated.
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Q. What's he throw on strike one?
A. He is consistently capable of throwing a strike that is not centered. ML hitters aren't going to swing at an 0-0 pitch that is not in the zone they are looking for.
So Fister was ahead of 9 of the first 12 hitters, or something like that.
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Q. What's he throw on 3-1?
A. Located FB, or change speed, also good location. If he walks them, he walks them.
He *is* going to be dealing with an adjustment, because this is a guy who undoubtedly got lots of swings at balls off the plate, in the minors. But he's got room for adjustment, because his minors K/BB was 79/11. If that drops to, let's say, 59/25 because of ML plate discipline, he's still in great shape.
That's pretty much what I'd predict.
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Q. What's his strikeout pitch?
A. None of them, and all of them.
He has no plus weapon. But he can set up strike three in lots of ways:
1. Called 70-mph change curve that freezes the hitter (as Quentin in the 2nd).
2. Perfectly-located 89 swerveball just outside the zone (as Konerko in the 4th).
3. 89-90 fastball blown by a hitter, after said hitter has been set up with several offspeed pitches (as Thome in the 6th). The proverbial "89 fastball that looks like it's 99".
4. Low-away slider that comes in looking like another FB on the black (as Konerko in the 6th).
5. Any fastball just outside the zone that catches the batter looking.
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Q. His swinging strike % was kind of low in the PCL.
A. But his K/9 wasn't!
This is a pitcher who is going to catch lots, and lots, and lots of guys LOOKING. K/9 is much more important than SwS%.
Fister's game is to change speeds, nibble just off the plate, move the ball around, and LOCK GUYS UP. Do NOT judge him by SwS%. Judge him by K/9.
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Q. What will his K/9 have to be?
A. Shandler's magic number for this kind of pitcher is 5.6 per nine, or more. That's if he wants to STAR.
If he just wants to be a league-average SP (and make $8M per year some day), he has to fan 5 and walk 2.
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Q. Prognosis?
A. Think that the K's will be lower (in the 5's) rather than higher (in the 6's), but we'll see. He doesn't have a true plus weapon, but the stuff was interesting, and he can set guys up.
Cheers,
Dr D