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Thats just the thing though. Hes NOT getting better. Hes exactly the same guy hes been the past few years. Hes more likely to get worse than better, although hes a good bet for another couple years to maintain.
Considering the league switch and moving to a non-hitter's park I'd bet on the under on 40 HRs. 35-40 Hrs the next couple years is a good bet.