I'm not a doctor, I just play one on the web
Article out today pronounces Erik Bedard, dead, referencing this article that declares Bedard-types to have "a 3% chance of becoming Rocky Biddle."
Um, no.
A 3% chance of becoming almost worthless, and a 97% chance of becoming totally worthless. Then what's this? Gil Meche had a badly torn labrum in 2001, among several other serious problems.
The surgery was NOT successful on Meche. He went back, IIRC, 6-8 months later, and had the shoulder re-done. Along with the labrum they repaired at least two other problems, although I forget what they were.
Gil didn't have a 3% chance of becoming almost worthless, and a 97% chance of becoming totally worthless. He returned to 100% form and then some -- he pitched better after the surgery than before, and threw as hard after as he did before.
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Roger Clemens had catastrophic shoulder surgery early in his career -- a rotator cuff, which at the time was considered a death sentence.
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A torn labrum is the last thing a pitcher wants, unless it's a rotator cuff, but it's not a death sentence.
And that's one more example of why you don't want to follow a guy when he says ...
"Of 36 pitchers diagnosed (who counted the 36?!)
in the last five years (why should five years be the golden milestone and why does Meche not count?!)
returned to their previous levels (who judges the return? Does a 117 ERA+ compared to a 121 previous norm mean you failed?)"
I learned to stop taking "name" writers as gospel long ago. How do I know whether their mini-"studies" are edited and massaged to exaggerate their points?
The article was written in 2004. I notice that Meche was included in the group of pitchers who died under labrum surgery. At the time the article was written, the implication was that Gil Meche was done.
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Another issue is, how torn is torn? I know for a fact that a doctor, told that Bedard is having labrum surgery and that he can't possibly come back, would ask this question first: "What degree is the tear?"
Bedard's tear escaped detection by Dr. Lewis Yocum. Do you suppose that means it's a complete tear? Bedard was throwing 92 mph with this tear. Does that mean it's an 80% tear?
If the tear is (say) 15%, why compare the prognosis to that of a man with a 70% tear? You don't.
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Another issue is, what is the state-of-the-art? Medical technology is a moving target. Can you compare a prognosis for 2009 with a prognosis back in 2005?
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Richie Sexson had labrum and rotator-cuff surgery and we were all assured that the Mariners had committed a horrific medical blunder in re-signing him. He was actually coming off surgery when he signed with the Mariners.
The opinions of the surgeons who passed him on his pre-contract physical were considered much less seriously than the opinions of the bloggers who tried to count the BABIP's on hitters who'd had the surgery.
Richie, of course, had zero shoulder issues after the surgery, hitting 39 homers in Safeco the season after his surgery, and experiencing zero problems after.
We don't get to go back and say, "But he wasn't a pitcher!", because at the time we were dogmatically proclaiming the effects of labrum tears on hitters' power. So what are we proclaiming now?
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The bloggers pronounced Sexson a writeoff. The doctors said he was fine. You'll forgive me if I ignore the bloggers, and listen to the doctors, as to Erik Bedard's prognosis.
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You don't want major shoulder surgery, that's for sure. But a 3% chance to come back? And even then your upside is Rocky Biddle?
Reality check time, babe. I'll wait for the doctors' prognoses.
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=== UPDATE Dept. ===
We wrote the above after reading the first paragraph of the local article and clicking over to the Slate article and reading all of that.
Returning to the local article, we see that one of the readers pointed out Brandon Webb, and Carroll's later medical opinion :- \ that technology has indeed advanced and that prognoses are not as dire.
The local article links to this article that points out Schilling and Carpenter as other examples of successful labrum surgeries.
So, that's commendable moderation after-the-fact.
Which leaves us back at home plate. I want to hear what a surgeon says about Bedard's future.
BABVA,
Dr D