Why even consider trading a young, average solid guy whose salary for the next bit is almost certainly classifiable as "bargain"? Well, yeah, if you've got Chase Utley in AAA, you consider it. But, part of the Bavasi legacy is that the MI in the minors was largely gutted because Bavasi committed to YuBet and Lopez *VERY* early.
Okay, I get your enthusiasm for Captain Jack. And yes, there might be a market for Lopez to bring in some solid talent. But, the Putz trade didn't bring in ANY *name* talent. Putz was THE name in that deal. When you trade THE name, you get to ask for a BUNCH of stuff coming back. There will come a day when that is the proper move. That ain't today.
Me? I think Lopez is already climbing on board the Z-train. I think his career high ISO this season is a direct result of the new culture. No, he's not the patient "smart at bat" guy that Z loves so much. But he IS the "hit it hard" guy that fits with the new paradigm. I think the big separation between Z and Bavasi era is that while he may have a preferred player template - I think the current regime attempts to work WITH the talent available, instead of demanding it be molded into a bunch of Ichiro clones.
While I think his upside is Soriano-esque w/o speed, (though Safeco is going to keep his HR output to high 20s, maybe low 30s), like most free-swingers w/o patience, he's likely going to be feast-and-famine. When he's hot, he'll get REAL hot. But, when he's cold, he doesn't add value in working counts, etc. So, he's a frustrating to follow hitter.
(Soriano has more inate power -- but he skews between 2 and 12 HRs per month from hot to cold. And this is almost every season. You see 36 HRs a year, you think 6 HRs a month. But, the free swingers tend to be more hot and cold. 2,12,5,7,3,7 ... that's the kind of HR/month lines you see. Lopez won't have those totals, but likely will have similar patterns:
2008: 2,0,3,3,4,5 was his HR spread
2009: 2,3,4,5,1,? at the moment.
Doesn't really FEEL like a Soriano scatter shot, does it? But, what happens if we look at the DOUBLES per month?
2008: 6,8,6,8,5,8
2009: 3,5,5,11,7,?
Lopez *optimized*, is going to be having erratic HR *AND* 2B swings from month to month. Frustrating to watch, but overall, more productive.
I don't think you can make him WALK more often. But, perhaps you can help him recognize a particular pitch that he should lay off more effectively. I have MUCH greater confidence in the new regime to actually maximize his potential than the previous one. And I'm excited not by the specific adjustment this year ... but by the ATTITUDE adjustment. That leap of, "if I change my approach a litte, I become better", open the door to all kinds of possibilities not available to young kids unwilling (or unable) to listen or take instruction.
He can be a 105 OPS+ hitter pretty easily. I think 115-125 is doable ... 50 doubles, 25-HRs. The talent is there to do it. The question is whether the mind is finally catching up to the talent.
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