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Sandy - Raleigh's picture

Asked above, but not answered:
League average (2009) of all AL hitters:
vs. Power:  .245/.333/.394/.726
vs. Finesse: .289/.344/.469/.813
Aggregate LEAGUE split gives EVERY hitter an 87 point edge against the bbref "finesse" pitchers.  I'm confused on Matt's numbers, though.  Langerhans career and 2009 numbers:
2009 Ryan vs. Power: .214/.389/.643/1,032
2009 Ryan vs Finesse: .147/.189/.353/.542
Career Ryan vs Power: .213/.325/.324/.667
Career Ryan vs Finesse: .267/.341/.424/.765 (98 point edge)
It's only 111 PAs, so the problems with sample size are rife.  But, WITH THE MARINERS, RL has been pounding the crap out of "power" pitchers, (in his 14 ABs/ 20 PAs). 
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In truth, I think Matt is probably very much on line with his eyeball assessment, but 100% wrong on his analytical conclusions.  I have no doubt that RL "appears" to have a slow bat these days.  But, I bet if you went back to the first weeks when he was on fire, the assessment of his bat speed and reactions would paint a completely different picture.  You see, I don't think Matt's observations refute my position on Langerhans, I think they CONFIRM it. 
RL *is* a streaky hitter.  When he's "locked in", the basic reality is that he picks up the ball better (quicker), and not only does hit bat speed "appear" excellent, he "appears" to be an absolutely fantastic hitter, who ought to be putting up MVP numbers, (as many suggested during their first week looking at him).
But, when he's NOT "locked in", he doesn't ID the ball as quickly.  So, he's late on the fast stuff.  But, here's the lesson ... he's NOT the same hitter every day, (no hitter is).  And RL's inconsistency is pretty extreme.  His streaks tend to be SHORT.  So, he'll pound the ball for a week, scuffle for a week, have a meh week, and then repeat the pattern.  The stud hitters will streak for 6 weeks at a time, and keep the slumps much shorter, (10-12 games). 
Oddly enough, Matt commented on Wilkerson (hello way-back machine), showing the EXACT same profile at the plate.  He started off the season late on everything.  BUT, being a hitter that doesn't swing UNTIL he identifies the pitch, his walk rate doesn't typically suffer during a down spell.  (In fact, walk rates tend to plunge for this type of hitter when they ARE seeing the ball well - because they start killing the strikes, instead of fouling them off). 
In truth, I think, a lot like Wilkerson, that Langerhans would probably fair better in an everyday role than coming off the bench.  But I think his inconsistency is bad enough that he's a weak choice as a full-time starter.  The plus of a guy like Langerhans as a #4 OF is that he provides quality defense, a decent bat off the bench, but a plus over a more stereotypical #4 OF, he likely improves his performance significantly if forced into a full-time role due to injury.
A guy like Orlando Palmeiro is going to be basically the same as a sub or as a starter, good conact, low K-rate, few walks or power.  He is what he is.  A guy like Langerhans won't carry a .280 average for you.  But, he'll draw walks, can run the bases, play good Dee, and has decent power, (exceptional power if compared to anyone coming off the Seattle bench in the past 5 years). 
This is especially important to consider when thinking in terms of backing up 3 OF positions AND the DH slot.  If you're backing up 4 slots, you want to have someone who can step into the lineup full-time, (due to injury), that can post a line only "slightly" below the regular.  But, most teams cannot AFFORD to keep such a bat in reserve.  Langerhans is perfect in this regard, because his abysmal average keeps his dollar cost very low, but his other plusses actually keep his real-time value (if needed) much higher than say ... an emergency call-up from the farm.

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