I just don't get why so many people seem to be aching to dump Lopez.
But fine. A good GM should be willing to at least listen to offers for any player, (which includes Ichiro and Felix). BUT, what is Lopez likely to bring? Is he bringing a major league proven player with better offensive and defensive numbers? If so ... why ... and how?!?
Wouldn't trading Lopez today be a near identical replay of trading Carlos Guillen in '03?
At this point, there is ZERO reason to expect Tui to be an instant success in 2010. He was a big surprise in ST, but then missed most of 2009 w/ injury. Okay, "maybe" he steps in an posts an "adequate" .700 OPS. *OR*, he does his best Wlad impression and struggles to stay over .600.
Since returning from his latest family tragedy, Lopez is showing a CONSISTENT 200+ ISO. He's already set a personal best in HRs, and is likely to set a new personal best in 2Bs and RBI before the season ends. His season stats are suppressed due to a horrible start as he adapted to a club attempting to properly leverage his skills, instead of suppressing them.
While he average and OPS have fluctuated (as everyone's do), one interesting stat progression for Lopez on the season is his total base count by month:
28, 38, 45, 55, 59 ...
No, he's never going to be a great OBP guy. But, the club NEEDS right-handed power among other things. But, most of the imported RH power guys end up getting killed by Safeco. Lopez GREW UP in the Safe. No, he's not a perfect batter for Safeco, (no Righty is). But, a lineup of 9 LHBs is just going to create a different set of problems.
As for the current lineup wrangling ... you've gotta play with what's available on the day. It doesn't matter whether Branyan or Beltre or Jack Wilson are out, every injury forces compromises. I think it's a bit hasty to draw conclusions on the grand scheme for 2010 when final decisions on Branyan, Beltre, (and Jack Wilson), are well off in the distance.
Me? I'd *LOVE* to have a 25-30 HR 2B on my roster, at a price of under 8 million for the next two seasons COMBINED. His value DROPS if you move him to first or third. And his defense CANNOT POSSIBLY be so bad that it drags the team down. The Seattle team defense is #1 in DER in the AL by a wide margin. The weakest link defensively was Yuni, and the club's DER has indeed gone up a bit since his departure.
Hall would be a fantastic McLemore clone --- assuming he buys into the idea. But, Wilson is the guy I see as the most expendable, (he hasn't shown any offense, he's gotten hurt, and he's owed 8.4 million in 2010, but can be bought out for only 600k.) You dump Wilson, and Hall becomes the obvious starter at short, (pending off-season moves by Z).
The big question marks for 2010 at this point are LF, DH and 3B. These are ALL considered big-bat positions. These have ALL been disappointing production areas for the team during 2009. It's FAR more likely to be able to find an .800 OPS bat at LF, DH or 3B than it will be at second or short.
Saunders has talent, yes. But, what if Z goes out and signs ... Jason Bay? Is anyone going to be screaming to give Saunders a spot then?
Me? I think Lopez could probably bring some nice prospects ... who might be ready in 2012 or 2013. I'm personally against the idea of moving him to either corner just for the sake of moving him, because I think a .270/.300/.470 line may be his BOTTOM going forward, with a more likely middle of .280/.310/.500. (And, of course, his stats are MASSIVELY suppressed this season by Safeco, meaning, if he moves to a hitters park, he could be posting an .850+ OPS next season and making all those who wanted to dump him wanting to slit their own wrists.
It's odd ... but Seattle is LUCKY they have been as bad as they've been for as long as they've been. Because that gave them the luxury of allowing a kid who was rushed to the majors to mature into a man who is finally understanding how to do his job. But when a club gets turned around and is competitive each year ... you no longer have the luxury of accepting a BUNCH of .650 years from your prospects. You can deal with 1 struggling newbie per season, but he's gotta "get it" quickly, or he's gone.
Saunders, Tui, Carp, Ackley ... the club has come young talent which is intriguing. But, if the club is winning 85 games and up, then they can't deal with 2 or 3 rookies posting rookie numbers, (or sophomores having sophomore slumps) at the same time. Moving from 60 to 80 wins is TRIVIAL when compared to moving from 80 to 90. For me, a 25-30 HR 2B at bargain basement prices is HIGHLY valuable to constructing a roster.
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