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Sandy - Raleigh's picture

I know everyone else is concentrating on the young and comers, (or even the possible return of a cheap dice-roll on Bedard).  And if 2010 was the FINAL season of Silva's contract, then I'd think it more likely to be a realistic hope.  But, I think there's a bit of naivetee going on here.  If earning more money than every other starter COMBINED, Silva is going to be a priority to get some value out of.  It's easy for the fan to say (yawn, another 24 million down the drain ... let's move on).  It's MUCH harder for the company endorsing those checks.
It's a simple baseball reality that players who still have minor league options are going to be more likely to be sent down when compared to the veteran owed $24 million.  This is one of the reasons why rolling the dice on Bedard gets complex.  Felix is obvious.  The next four STARTS with Silva, (no matter how much the fans don't want this to be true).  Silva will have to prove he CANNOT hack it as "at least" a #5 before the club swallows that pill.
No, this is not a thought that'll bring joy to the Mariner masses, but before anyone hurls themselves off a roof, I think it's important to remember that prior to 2009, the opinion of Wash by much of the Mariner faithful wasn't much better than that of Silva.  While there was much speculation that Silva's DL assignment was dubious ... by now I think it's obvious that there was geniune injury, which means his 2009 numbers with the club were tainted.
It's also important to remember that after his 5.94 ERA 38-HR 2006 season with the Twinkies, he followed it up with a 4.19 ERA in 2007 which is why he had ANY FA value in 2008. 
The likely rotation, IMO to "start" the 2009 season?
Felix
RRS
Silva
French
Snell
The complicating factor here is handedness.  Z has proven he understand the home field situation, attempting pile on the lefty bats.  But, to encourage opposition to use righty bats, then you need a bunch of lefty pitchers, too.  Felix, of course, is dominant enough that handedness is irrelevant.  But Fister and French? 
I honestly think the club might convince Snell to start off in AAA, if he hasn't found his joy by ST, (even if out of options).  Snell REQUESTED to be sent down because he was so bummed in Pittsburgh.  Of course, the final month of 2009 will play a part in the decisions, as will performance during ST.
The potentially best option would be to convince Silva to move to the pen, where I think he might be an even better middle reliever than Jaku.  Throw strikes.  Pitch to contact.  Never let 'em see you twice in a game.  (Career numbers for Silva:  .751 OPS 1st PA in game ... .860 on 2nd ... .842 on 3rd).  Basically, to get Fister into the lineup, I think they have to turn Silva into Batista.
Of course, we haven't seen Z deal from depth yet.  So, I wouldn't be surprised to see him turn a handful of his "interesting" but unspectacular pitching prospects into one really good lefty, (being a lefty, of course, makes gambling on Bedard more attractive, too). 
The pattern ought to be obvious ... Olson, Vargas, French ... Z was stacking the deck to TRY and replace the walking Wash and Bedard with more lefties.  Dash, at this point, is the only lefty anyone is high on.  That's fair enough.  But I cannot see the club WANTING to begin 2009 with only a single lefty in the rotation.  I understand that visual inspection is nice.  But I still just don't get why Fister and French, who BOTH had a performance explosion in AAA this season and each has just a handful of really intriguing AAA innings, and even smaller MLB innings results in one being annointed as the next rotation fixture and the other deemed utter dogmeat, (especially when it's the younger guy that's dubbed dogmeat).  At 23, Fister was still struggling in AA, and at 24 posted absolutely AWFUL numbers in AA. 
I suppose the disconnect is in examining a guy who was statistically AWFUL in 2008 and seeing him perform exceptionally well in 2009 ... why is it that seeing a guy 2 years younger performing BETTER than Fister did at age 24 and already in the majors is being written off as a complete dead-end waste of time?
In any case, I don't see Z and W making their choices on the 2010 rotation based only on a couple of good outings in September. 
 

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