Great read, (as always), Doc.
Just want to note that as fantastic as your PBP pitching disections are ... they don't address what I believe is the ultimate arbiter between success and failure in the majors ... consistency. Fister, (like all pitchers), will have bad outings. The biggest unknown with young pitchers is what's the bredth and depth of their natural swings in performance.
I keep trying to find some "tell" about consistency from looking at minor league lines, and in all honesty cannot find one. I used to believe walk rate was the key. If you can throw strikes when you need to, I'd think your game-to-game variation would be smaller. But walk rates seem to drastically change for lots and lots of young guns coming up. The success stories eventually get things worked out -- the failures don't.
As I noted when there was much enthusiasm for Jaku ... how good you are is a combination of your best AND your worst.
That said, your analysis makes me very optimstic about Fister. The "it" being discussed is precisely what Z seems to be searching for in every player he scouts. And "it" isn't easy to identify. Z believed Olson had it, and this has not proven to be the case. Of course, having watched a decade of the ultimate "it" master, (Maddux), I profess a preference for pitchers over throwers. This is why I felt Wash got a bad rap for much of his stay in Seattle, and was thrilled to see him have such a wonderful final act.
I'm hoping that if Fister and Dash do develop into solidly reliable starters, (and the club can get Felix extended), then the future could turn out to be especially bright for the club. The really, really, really fun part of all this (for me), is that while you are often quite entertaining in venting your angst and ire about the defense-over-offense decisions for the club -- I strongly believe that if the club can maintain that defense for another couple of seasons, then they will be in a position to create MASSIVELY overvalued pitching that can be traded for the very bats you covet.
I do NOT think the importance of the quality defense behind these young guns. As badly as Olson and Vargas have been panned, (and rightfully so), they both managed to post "decent" numbers. Wash - a 'decent' pitcher, posted EXCEPTIONAL numbers. And while FIP et al are being used more widely by clubs ... the pull of Wins and ERA remain incredibly strong, and influence trade decisions.
==========
As a final point ... I think it may have escaped notice by most that the Angels offense is scoring 5.7 runs a game ... the SAME as the Yankees lineup. While the Angels trail the Yanks by almost 40 points in OPS, and are 2nd only to the Yanks in total bases. Having done this with Vlad missing 50 games just adds to the argument that ANY pitcher who can shut down the Angel offense has done something special.
Add new comment
1