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Sandy - Raleigh's picture

Why keep looking at Josh Wilson?  Because he's *NEVER* had a chance to play full-time in his baseball career.  He's a career backup, whose PT (in the majors) has come almost exclusively in mop-up duty or injury-plug-in.  For his 3-year (in the majors) career, Josh has a grand total 35 PAs seeing a pitcher for the 3rd time. 
No, we shouldn't leap to wonderful conclusions based on his .773 OPS with the Ms.  But his 71 PAs with the Ms is about as big as any split he's generated to date.  They're ALL effectively useless. 
There were people supporting the contention that Branyan would never hit lefties because he went oh-for-12 in 2008.  In 2007, Josh got a decent audition -- 105 games, 310-PAs, (mostly with Tampa).  No, his .251/.291/.354/.644 line with Tampa (at age 26) isn't impressive.  (Neither was Lopez' .232/.263/.367/.630 debut line in 218 PAs).
The ultimate truth in all this is that if you EVER want to get cheap, undervalued players that can break out and shine (at bargain prices) for your club -- then you have to acquire guys that do NOT look (at first blush) to be "good" players.  THEN, you have to play them.  This doesn't mean Josh is a candidate to hold down shortstop for the next 10 years.  But, his .750 minor league aggregate suggests there's at least a chance he could supply a .700 OPS in the majors.  (His .615 in the majors suggests he can't).  Of course, his current M stats go 100% contrary to your lead point in this essay -- his eye is an off-the-charts awful 3/17.  But, he's managed a .773 OPS, which is more than 100 points higher than any of the other shortstops the club has displayed in 2009. 
Why you're looking at Josh Wilson is because in his brief audition, he's pounding out a 200 ISO!?!  Odds are REALLY strong that this is phantom data.  But, it's WAY better than anything JACK Wilson has ever done.  But, when you go out and get Josh Wilson, it AIN'T because you've got a strong yen for a .615 OPS backup --- it's because you have a hunch there is something more there than what the raw stats show.  Odd thing with Josh -- his minor league AND major league lines show 60 points of patience.  No, that ain't great.  Unless you compare him to: Lopez, YuBet, Beltre (this year), Ichiro, or Johjima.  Of course, he's only showing 41 points of patience with Seattle, (in exchange for the off-the-chart power surge). 
The question for 2010 is this ... do you want to pay $8 million to keep Jack Wilson around, hoping he can produce something over his .684 career OPS (in a park that murders RH hitters), as he turns 32?  Or, do you want to gamble on the 28-year-old nobody that might be able to post numbers similar to Wilson, (if you're right), for something close to league minimum?  (Given the absolutely miserable results from Yubet, Cedeno and Jack Wilson, the track record for Z and the shortstop position have NOT been stellar thus far).
Whoever the 2010 shortstop ends up being, he doesn't need to be posting a 103 OPS+, (Josh Wilson's current number).  But he DOES need to post something over 80 if the club hopes to contend. 
 

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