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Sandy - Raleigh's picture

As to why Halman continues to be viewed as cherry and Tui as plywood ...
I think it starts with basic old human inertia.  Halman was vaulted to stardom *NOT* just because of the eye-on scouts.  Per the Cube, Halman jumped from NOWHERE to #1 on the Seattle rankings in 2009.  What did he PRODUCE in 2008?  Splitting time between A+ and AA, Hallman produced 29 HRs and went 31 of 37 in SBs -- at the age of 20.  What are the two traits in baseball that CANNOT be taught?  Power and Speed.  Hallman had 20 HRs and 31 steals in A+ and A ball at age 19.  That's TWO seasons of way outside the norm production, which IMPROVED when he climbed the ladder.  Obviously, his 2nd spin in AA didn't go so well.  But, he still managed 25 HRs. 
But, the point here is that once you MAKE a call on someone, it'll take twice as much data to admit defeat as it did to make the call originally.  And that's how it SHOULD be.  If we change our opinions with EVERY new piece of info, then we'd have no stability at all in our projections and analyses.  Many who were sky high on Jaku early took quite some time to admit he wasn't all that, (and some still haven't admitted it). 
Tui was the #5 Seattle spec in '05 and '06.  A lot of that was the 1249 OPS he posted in rookie ball.  4-HR and a 13/14 BB/K ratio (only 68 ABs) got people's attention -- especially from a shortstop.  But, after a .738 OPS in A+ ball, he struggled DREADFULLY in AA, (.477 OPS in 216 ABs).  He was also moved from short to third.  We ALL know that a good hitting SS is VASTLY more valuable than a good hitting 3B.  So, he played awful, and moved to a less valued position.  He dropped off the ranks completely.
In 2007, he posted a .775 OPS in 446 ABs in AA, and shows back up as the #10 prospect on the 2008 list. 
In 2008, he posts an .817 OPS in AAA, (but goes only 7 of 44 in his cup of coffee).  He doesn't steal bases.  His solid AAA season included a career high 13 HRs, and he's already 22.  His .281 BA in AAA is also pedestrian.  Basically, there wasn't a single CLASSIC stat that screamed "star", and he bombed in his brief MLB debut, AND Beltre was an absolute fixture for Seattle in 2009.  Not really surprising that he didn't make the top 10 from BBA.
After his great ST, I think he might have gotten moved up on many lists, but then he got hurt.  Whatever scouting momentum he might have generated from his solid 2008 AAA numbers and ST was lost when he got hurt.  That said, I think his 11-HR in 226 ABs, (another major improvement in the power category), likely moves him up the list when the 2010 lists appear.  But, BBA only releases a *comprehensive* update once-a-year (from what I understand). 
Still, the basic truth is there ... that there is a major lag between player metamorphosis and prospect rankings getting updated.  And while I agree that the eyes-on scouts are VERY necessary, I think that BBA, (and other prospect services ... and many major league scouts), are largely still married to the "classic" stats of BA, HR, SB, RBI and Runs.  And can you really blame tham?  After all, those stats remain the primary stats for the vast majority of fantasy leagues ... and guys in fantasy leagues deal *ONLY* in numbers.  Sadly, it's likely going to be another 30 years before ISO and Total Average and FIP, etc., etc., etc., become the true metrics of baseball.

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