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Yer spot on.
Although there are some other factors at work as well that help with scouting the young 'uns.
Listened to a coach of a D1 athletic program talk about recruiting one time...  He thought one of the best indicators for a kid's athletic upside was the mother's athletic aptitude.  He didn't see nearly as much of a link with the father.  He recounted an anecdote where (IIRC) he met the mother of a potential recruit.  Started chatting, finds out she decided to try running a couple years ago, and oh just happened to start winning marathons a year or so in to it...  LOL! 
We all know that just because Michael Garciaparra is Nomar's brother, he's not necessarily going to hit like him.  But the genetics are a strong indicator.  Tui's got something going for him in that department.