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... second level is, do a team's actual runs underperform or overperform its expected runs. In this case (this year, actually) I haven't been bothering.
Thanks for the wake-up call. :- ) BP's adjusted standings confirm your insight -- per expected runs (EQR, adjusted and unadjusted) the Mariners are solidly .500 this year.
Good show.
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As most of us would agree ... we blink our eyes and it doesn't SEEM like the M's are getting outplayed down there. Yet the run differential is -50.
The realization that the BASES gained and lost, are 50:50, is comforting.