Add new comment

Actually, Doc, the argument for Hannahan over Willie B -- or Josh Wilson over both of them is sample size.  The smaller the sample size, the more chance for error in previous assessment. 
Willie had 1400+ PAs heading into 2009 - all as a reserve, and KC made him a starter.  He's posting a career high OPS, (.677).  Of course, that's only about 25 points over what he came in with -- but is a 20-30 point gain in OPS reasonable for a guy going from part-timer to full-timer?  I dunno.
Hannhan had about 800 PAs when Jack snagged him.  He was forced into every day role for a bit, but that ended with Beltre's return.  And his OPS with Seattle, mostly as a starter, (.680), is about 20 points better than what he came on board with. 
Josh Wilson only has 500 MLB PAs, INCLUDING the 106 with Seattle, spread mostly over two seasons, with a missing season in the minors, divided among a half dozen teams.  Is the 106 PAs with Seattle, (.670 OPS) more or less of a reasonable sample size than the 400 sporadic PAs over the previous 4 seasons? 
Jose Lopez got his 1000-1500 PAs during his age 23 season, and hit a dreadful .639.  He had shown a .723 OPS the previous season, and that combined with his age, (and lack of other options), kept him going, and now he's blossoming.  But, it's not ALL about age.  Part of the equation is chances.  For most guys, 1,500 MLB PAs is enough to get a pretty good read on their talent range. 
For guys with only 500 PAs, you don't go and pull out the minor league stats because they're a great resource of accurate predicting.  You do it, because you HAVE to.  The really interesting part of all this -- Josh Wilson has EXACTLY the same minor league OPS as Hannahan, (.754), and a (.759) AAA aggregate.  But, Hannahan has a .802 AAA aggregate, (and is a year older).  Hannahan has more patience, Wilson actually has more power. 
For any team OTHER than Seattle, I'd be leaning toward Josh as the rover.  More upside due to lower sample size, and more power.  But Hannahan is a lefty, has more patience, and a  better eye ratio.  If there's a really simple reason to keep looking at Hannahan it is because there simply aren't that many lefty hitting utility guys around.  For all the hope that Jack Wilson would survive Safeco, the evidence to date weighs against. 
Me?  I'd rather continue looking at Josh and Hannahan as the default SS for 2010, while I continue to look for a better option.  Save the money on the Jack Wilson option and settle for giving the guys with small samples a shot to pull a Branyan while you're shopping.