My take?
No clue as to who is better. The stats have been close enough on enough fronts that from a stat-analysis, it's coin flip city for me. Ideally, they BOTH succeed. (Gee, we have too many GOOD pitchers is the kind of problem every franchise dreams of).
That said -- why I'd like to see French, (or Olson or Vargas), turn things around next season and magically manifest the mistake avoidance that has plagued the lot of these guys? Because it would be evidence that Z *IS* seeing something in the scouting and numbers that he can work with and develop into success stories. If French, Olson and Vargas *ALL* plummet into the AAAA -- ("boy, I hope we don't need these guys any time this year") - pile previously reserved for Feierabend -- then the initial returns on Z's talent scouting for pitching comes up a big fat 'F'.
Granted, the best hitters can go oh-for-three on a given day, and still win MVP titles. The hitting side had plusses for every minus -- Gutz, Branyan, on one side, Cedeno on the other. Hannahan and Langerhans were decent pickups -- Jack Wilson, not so much. But, I don't expect a GM to bat a thousand. But, you certainly cannot win if he is batting .000, either.
My worry -- three young guns, French, Olson, Vargas. Three guys the ALL end up with horrid HR rates. If Fister comes up, and reproduces the same HR rates, then the evidence starts suggesting that the problem may not be in talent assessment, but an issue with teaching and development. But, to fix a problem, you have to KNOW what the problem happens to be.
But, given the park they get 1/2 their games in, the HR problems for these kids are not simply annoying, but astronomically terrible. If you don't think gopheritis is a problem, here's a little tidbit from the monthly pitching line (and run allowance), for Seattle:
April - 84-RA - 13-HR
May - 146 RA - 37-HR
June - 84 RA - 20-HR
July - 132 RA - 41-HR
Aug - 135 RA - 40-HR
Sep - 98 RA -- 21-HR
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